San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Moderate NE winds and below-freezing temperatures will keep the snowpack frozen today on all but the sunniest low elevation aspects.  The cold and frozen surface will make avalanche activity unlikely.  Be prepared for icy conditions complicated by a trace of overnight snow, and consider adjusting your plans if you encounter complications due to hard snow surfaces.  

Today will be sunny, but cold temperatures and moderate winds are expected to keep the snowpack hard.  There's a slight chance of softening on lower elevation solar aspects, but most of the probable terrain for this is seemingly void of any snow.  Temperatures and insolation should remain low enough that the likelihood of wet loose avalanches will be extremely low.  However, if you encounter wet snow or are sinking into the snowpack, move to a cooler, less sunny slope. 

Over the last week,  the region has gone from summer to spring to winter-like conditions.  Most slopes even picked up a trace of snow last night. This new snow on top of frozen surfaces may make travel even a bit more complicated.   Feel confused about the temperature swing?  A trough to the north is classically skirting the northern Arizona region, yet leaving us with its bitter cold front.  Yesterday, moderate winds at the front edge of the cold front reduced temperatures and kept most snow surfaces frozen.  A similar trend is expected today, with winds shifting to the NE as the trough exits the northern region.  Temperatures will increase a few degrees, but not enough to rise above freezing near treeline.  The Northeast winds today could distribute the small amounts of new snow into soft slabs, filling in depressions and the leeward side of ridgelines.  These very small slabs could release if traveled on and may cause a skier or rider to slide over frozen surfaces.  Look for soft, newly transported snow and move around or avoid these areas.

Most access and egress locations have lost snow connectivity due to snow melt over the last week.  Expect additional transitions and challenges when moving from zone to zone across the mountain.  Today's a great day for ski or splitboard crampons, traction devices, and at the very least an ice axe.  Knowing how to use this equipment and keeping things conservative could prevent a slip and slide situation and save you a few hundred feet of unexpected elevation loss, not to mention prevent a serious injury.

If you're looking for background Information on the persistent slab problem:

A brief season rewind: a significant storm impacted the peaks in late November, followed by a generally dry and warm December. This period produced basal facets, although warmer periods moderated facet development. This dry period was followed by two significant rain events over the Holidays, which have plagued the season with the dreadful Holiday Ice Layer (HIL).  Following the Holidays, we have had several smaller storms that fell on top of the HIL, but the snow was often redistributed, stripping windward upper-elevation aspects and leaving the ice crust exposed. In areas with newer snow, subsequent dry conditions have allowed it to facet, creating near-surface facets. These smaller storms were buried by the mid-February storm, creating a complex snowpack that contains two persistent weak-layer problems (e.g., near-surface facets and basal facets), each with its own distribution, and, if overloaded, could facilitate large avalanches. Following this storm, the snowpack has experienced unseasonably warm temperatures and is struggling to adjust, as evidenced by persistent propagation in test pits.  The forecast will continue to list this problem until it becomes unreactive or until these facet layers finally move on. 

Generally speaking:

Thus far, this season is the second warmest on record.  In general, spring conditions are in effect.  We're in the midst of what Avalanche Canada calls:  All Freeze, no Melt.  Although midday warming has been on pause for the last couple of days, the above average termpeature trend is expected to resume Sunday and take off through next week, giving rise to our typical melt-freeze cycle.  A small group of dedicated individuals who have not given up on winter continues to find "hard to get to", but pleasurable turns.  Check out their observations here.   If you find yourself out in the backcountry, consider submitting an observation.  Your contributions are greatly appreciated!!