Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Rain and high-elevation wet snow will create dangerous conditions on Wednesday.  Natural or human-triggered wet snow avalanches are more likely in the western, wetter parts of the zone.   Think about your overhead hazard, wet avalanches may become large and cross elevation bands. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Light rain will continue to fall on the recent snow, with relatively heavier rainfall expected at mid and low elevations, particularly near the western edge of zone.  Upper elevations may see wet snow during this period. 

    This does not look like a super soaker event, but we may start to tip the scales to more widespread and larger wet loose avalanches.   If you find a wet, weak snowpack, start to avoid steep slopes over 35 degrees.  Rollerballing, pinwheeling, or natural wet loose avalanches are all signs that it's time to move to simpler terrain and check your overhead hazard. 

    As more water enters the snowpack this week, we may start to see large or even very large avalanches. Slab avalanches that begin in the highest elevations may quickly entrain wet snow as they move lower.  If you're in a wet, stormy area, plan your route carefully and add more buffer between you and avalanche runouts connected to bigger slopes.  Minimize your time under slopes with overhanging corncies.  At lower elevations, even small wet avalanches can be forceful enough to injure you or push you into other hazards, even if they're not big enough to bury you. 

    (11/17/2025)

    An example of a small (D1) wet avalanche on Hwy 20. This occurred around 11/14-15 on the closed roadway.

    Photo: WSDOT

Avalanche Discussion

Periods of light rain and high elevation snow fell over the last 24 hrs, with weather stations recording between 0.10-0.30" through 5pm Tuesday. The highest totals were near the western edge of the zone at Rainy Pass.  Winds were likely strong along ridgelines as well.  Another pulse of moisture from an atmospheric river should deliver a more significant shot of precipitation later tonight through Wednesday, along with strong westerly winds.   The rain/snow line may live in the upper-elevation band through Wednesday, but it will primarily be a rain event across much of the terrain, with higher precipitation totals near the western edge of the zone and little to no precipitation farther east.  It's going to be a wet, gloppy few days for the snowpack. 

On Monday, an observer in the Silver Star area reported warming temperatures and light drizzle by late morning. Snow surfaces were becoming sticky and moist.  On Sunday, an NWAC forecaster in the Blue Lake area reported minor cracking in wind-drifted snow and easy triggering of loose avalanches in sheltered terrain. They also watched a sluff trigger a very shallow slab avalanche below cliffs.  Over the weekend, observers reported widespread, mostly soft, avalanches up to size D2. On Saturday, a skier was caught, but uninjured, in a wind slab avalanche on a southeast aspect at 7600ft near Kangaroo Ridge. Prior to this, a stormy week delivered 2-3 feet of snow over the March 8th crust. 

There have been no recent observations of avalanches running on older persistent weak layers from mid-February. With the U-turn to wetter and milder conditions, these weak layers are worth keeping in mind. The 2/13 facets above the 2/7 crust can still be found on a variety of aspects and elevations at mid and upper elevations. 

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