Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Buried weak layers of snow deep in the snowpack will maintain a "low likelihood, high consequence" scenario for avalanches in the Newberry Monument. These weak layers exist on cold, sheltered slopes. If you were to trigger an avalanche on them, it would be large. Continue to exercise caution on steep, unsopported north facing slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Our field team has been observing the presence of two problematic weak layers in the snowpack at the Monument: a layer of surface hoar (2/14) buried 50 cm down, and a layer of rounding facets (2/8) that is buried 75 cm down. We have been finding the surface hoar in very isolated terrain, typically on cold north facing slopes around 7,000 ft. The 2/8 facet layer exists on most north slopes but appears to be gaining strength (rounding). This problem continues to trend down in likelihood to triggering, but if it were to slide it would result in a large avalanche. With unseasonably warm temperatures forecasted this week, it is worth considering for a bit longer.

    Small wet loose avalanches will also be possible to trigger later in the afternoon with increased warming to the surface snow.

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday, the morning started off wet with significant rain down at 10-mile sno park that appeared to reach the upper elevations of Paulina Peak. A thin breakable crust was prominent on higher elevation shaded slopes, with the afternoon sun softening solar slopes. Despite good snow coverage on the upper slopes of Paulina Peak, the lower elevations are melting out quickly, with access on trail 11 becoming increasingly challenging. Get it while you can!

Regions covered