Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Another day of above-freezing temperatures will keep wet snow problems lingering until we are able to get a solid refreeze. Wet snow can act in surprising ways, so lean on conservative terrain choices that limit exposure to avalanche paths until the snowpack becomes supportable. Small loose snow avalanches can quickly grow to harmful sizes and have the potential to trigger larger slab avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Above-freezing temperatures and periods of rain over the past five days have added significant liquid water to the upper snowpack, weakening it. Expect unsupportable snow surfaces and deep sinking in wet snow, whether traveling on foot or by machine. At upper elevations, where the snowpack is deeper and more supportable, you may encounter up to 12 inches of unconsolidated wet snow. At lower elevations, where the snowpack is less supportive, the depth of unsupportable snow may be much greater.

    Wet loose avalanches become more likely as slope angles increase. While these slides often start small, they can entrain additional snow and grow in size. Consequences may be amplified by terrain features and the unpredictable nature of wet snow.

    Debris from a natural Wet Loose avalanche in a steep gully feature. Many slopes with a similar steep angle also had debris, and this will continue with another day of warm weather and light rainfall.  

    March 19, 2026.

    Photo: Izzy Davis

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Rain and continued above-freezing temperatures are saturating and destabilizing the upper snowpack. On slopes steeper than 30 degrees, the added weight and stress combined with reduced friction at buried interfaces may be enough to trigger a failure. The most concerning layers are currently buried 3 to 5 feet deep, and a failure at one of these interfaces could produce a large, destructive avalanche.

    Uncertainty remains around how meltwater has impacted the snowpack. With limited insight into how close the snowpack is to a tipping point, it’s best to avoid traveling in or beneath avalanche terrain until conditions change and the snowpack has time to adjust. While we are likely past the peak instability associated with this weather system, conservative decision-making is still warranted until there are clearer signs of strengthening.

    An annotated pit profile showing the progression of rain and meltwater into the upper snowpack. Water will continue to work down in the snowpack with another day of above-freezing temperatures. 

    March 18, 2026.

    Photo: Jackson George

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    A cohesive slab 3 to 5 feet thick overlies two buried surface hoar layers. One was buried at the end of January (1/28) and the other in mid-February around Valentine’s Day (2/14). The overlying slab has stiffened and settled due to wind, warm temperatures, recent rain, and natural settlement within the snowpack. While these layers are currently dormant, they remain a concern and will stay on our radar until they show clearer signs of breaking down, which can take weeks or even months.

    Observations from yesterday suggest both layers are beginning to heal, but more time is needed before they can be ruled out. There has been no recent avalanche activity reported on these layers. However, persistent weak layers always carry uncertainty and are now being tested by warm temperatures and rain. If liquid water percolates down and lubricates one of these layers, it could become reactive again. Additionally, a wet loose avalanche in the upper snowpack or a cornice fall could step down and trigger a large to very large destructive avalanche on one of these buried layers.

    Debris from an old avalanche that propagated widely and ran a long distance downhill. This avalanche likely failed on a persistent weak layer. 

    March 2, 2026.

    Photo: Izzy Davis

Avalanche Discussion

Across all zones, the vast majority of weather stations are now going on day 5 of above freezing temperatures. 5 whole days! Yesterday we welcomed the first official day of spring, but conditions this week have felt downright balmy (and rainy). Temperatures in the mountains will creep up to the mid 30s to low 40s Farhenheit on Saturday. But fortunately, change is on the horizon. Several stations in the Selkirks just hit 32 degrees, and after this evening, temperatures will plummet into the 20s Fahrenheit for the night, thanks to a cold front moving in.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet. Wet problems will remain as a concern today, and rain will be more concentrated in the Silver Valley-Bitterroots and Cabinet Mountains while the north stays mostly dry. The infamous atmospheric river that has made for wet and dreary conditions is being pushed out of the area, but not before delivering another band of precipitation to the southern fetches of the forecast region on its departure.

If you are willing to brave the difficult travel conditions that come with such a saturated snowpack, you are likely to encounter Wet Loose avalanches in steep terrain on all aspects. Evidence of this problem is abundant right now, and many gullies and cliff bands have already naturally released. While most of these avalanches will start small, they can quickly grow in size and run long distances as the wet and dense debris entrains more snow moving downhill. Expect this problem to stick around until we can get a solid surface refreeze.

Things get a bit trickier when we start talking about the Wet Slab problem. Field teams have observed meltwater pooling at different crust layers and interfaces in the upper snowpack, but we have yet to see slabs really start to release. The structure for it is there, but the snowpack has been handling the moisture each day suspiciously well. These wet problems can act in very surprising ways, and being at the wrong place at the wrong time while one of these avalanches releases could very well lead to an unfortunate result. Keeping an extra margin around and below slopes greater than 30 degrees will be the best way to greatly reduce the chances of this scenario playing out.

Access to the mountains has become more difficult with snow rapidly melting out at lower elevations. Even at middle and upper elevations, the snowpack has lost significant depth from the combination of rain and unseasonably warm temperatures. I hate to say it, but things are changing quickly. Make sure to keep the avalanche brain on and engaged, and enjoy each day that we have left on snow this season.

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