Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Today there are several avalanche problems to be aware of.  The most obvious will be the threat of loose wet snow avalanches as our intense sun and warming temperatures during the day, will make the upper parts of the snow surface wet and moist.  

At upper elevations is where you'll find wind slabs from recent snow and strong westerly winds.  These slabs, will be relatively shallow, but avoid slopes where you find more than 6 inches of new snow that may appear pillowed or lens-shaped. A smaller wind slab avalanche has the possibility of stepping down into weak layers creating a larger avalanche.  Deeper down in the snowpack, weak layers near the ground and in the middle of the snowpack continue to linger.  Although becoming harder to trigger, if you were to trigger an avalanche on one of the deeper weak layers it could produce a very large avalanche that could have catastrophic consequences.  Sticking to wind-sheltered terrain under 35 degrees without steep slopes overhead will provide better and safer riding conditions. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak layers near the ground and in the middle of the snowpack continue to linger within the snowpack.  You're more likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche at upper elevations where there are more reactive slabs on the surface.  Obvious signs of instability like collapses will most likely not be present, but if you were to trigger an avalanche on one of these weak layers, it could produce a large and dangerous avalanche.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops as these are areas you're more likely to impact deeper buried weak layers. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Strong winds and a little bit of snow Thursday night into Friday have built shallow wind slabs. These slabs may appear to be pillowed or lens-shaped and could be firm underfoot.  These slabs will be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. Avoid slopes where you find 6 or more inches of wind drifted snow, paying attention to signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface. These wind slabs may not be bonding well to the old existing surfaces of crusts and hard-pressed snow. Triggering a smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  

    Cornices continue to remain a concern and may break back further than expected on ridgelines or provide a big trigger to a slope below if it releases naturally with warm temperatures.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    With warming temperatures and our intense sun this time of year we could see some loose wet snow avalanches on solar aspects, especially at lower elevations where winds are not expected to be as strong.  Like clockwork the sun will start to warm east aspects this morning, moving south and finally west aspects this afternoon. Watch for signs that the snow surface is getting wet or moist like roller balls or pinwheels or punching into the snow above your boot tops in wet snow. Most of these avalanches would be small but could knock you off your feet in steep consequential terrain. If you notice the snow getting wet, head to a shadier aspect.  

Avalanche Discussion

This will be the last day of regular avalanche forecasting for the season.  

This morning temperatures are mainly in the 20's under clear skies with westerly winds in the 20 and 30s with gusts in the 40 mph range.  Temperatures will quickly warm into the 30's and 40's and we may see temps rise above freezing at all elevations.  Winds are expected to increase this afternoon where we could see gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range.  Very windy weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as an upper-level low moves into the Great Basin and pushes the jet stream over NM.  Much of the weather focus will be on Red Flag Warnings and fire danger for the state that will mostly focus to areas east and south of us.  Although it was a slow start to the winter, several large storms in January, February and March have brought our mountains with much-needed moisture.

A quick-hitting system brought 2 to 4 inches of low-density snow Thursday night into Friday which was combined with strong westerly winds and easily drifted the new snow at upper elevations onto the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Easterly aspects will most likely have seen the greatest amount of loading below ridgelines. These wind slabs are relatively shallow but could knock you off your feet or take you for a ride in consequential terrain.     

The persistent slab avalanche problem is a little more complex as weak layers near the ground continue to remain a concern, especially near treeline terrain where the snowpack prior to last week's big storm was still relatively shallow.  Northerly and easterly slopes will be the most suspect, as they have seen the most amount of loading. Higher up in the snowpack, you may find, weak faceted layers beneath cohesive slabs around harder slabs and crusts. We haven't found these layers to be widespread, like the depth hoar near the ground, but could be present on the slopes you're traveling on. There could be several people on a slope, and not get any feedback like loud audible collapses, but all it may take is hitting a "sweet spot" and it could potentially release a big avalanche.    

 

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