Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Wet loose and wet slab avalanches remain the primary concern, after another poor overnight freeze and today's high temperatures pushing back into the 40's. Keep an eye on the amount of wet snow that you encounter to help gauge the size of the potential avalanche problem in your area. An inch of wet snow may be some good riding. A few inches of wet snow could easily get pushed down as a loose wet avalanche in steep terrain. 6 inches of wet snow or an unsupportive wet snowpack is not what you want to find in steep terrain and these conditions could produce large wet loose avalanches and dangerous wet slab avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Numerous large and dangerous wet slabs have failed this week on the aspects highlighted above. Avalanche activity is decreasing, but concerns for this avalanche problem still remain. The timing and amount of meltwater draining into buried weak layers vary significantly from slope to slope, so there is a high amount of variability and uncertainty in predicting Wet Slabs. Give yourself a wide buffer. You can reduce your risk by traveling early if the upper snowpack is frozen solid and supports your weight, or moving to north-facing aspects where there is currently limited meltwater.  

    A very large wet slab on Peeler Peak ran around 4/10.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet Loose avalanches have been occurring on all but the highest, coldest slopes.  At mid and lower elevations, they are gouging through significant amounts of saturated snow producing large and dangerous debris piles.   Frozen snow surfaces early in the morning will make for safer travel, but stability will deteriorate from east to south to west slopes throughout the day as surface crusts melt.  Time your travel while the snow surface is supportive and just starting to soften.  You're too late if you are sinking past your ankles or if you see rollerballs, pinwheels, or natural activity.  Increased winds are expected to keep this avalanche problem less reactive at upper elevations today. 

    Large, gouging wet loose avalanches like this have occurred at mid and low elevations, especially on the east, south, and west aspects.  

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Large, overhanging cornices continue to fall on a daily basis with this week's warm weather.   Some are capable of triggering destructive slab avalanches, while others are trundling down slope entraining large amounts of snow with car-sized chunks of cornice debris.  Limit your exposure on slopes with large cornices above, and give them a wide berth if you are traveling along corniced ridgelines.  

    A recent cornice fall in Redwell Basin.  Minimize your exposure to terrain like this.  

Avalanche Discussion

This morning's low temperatures are not to different from Wednesday's low temperatures. A couple of locations are below freezing, while most are near or above freezing. You can see those temperatures on our weather stations page. The main difference last night was the overcast cloud cover. Those clouds essentially work as a blanket and don't allow the snowpack to cool as well. So we can expect surface crusts to be thinner than they were yesterday, or for the snowpack in some areas to remain wet and unsupportive. 

We have made it through the peak instability that occurred on Monday and Tuesday when the snowpack received its first shock of hot weather. Though we will not move on from wet avalanche concerns until we see a return to good overnight freezing conditions. A cold front arrives tonight and the avalanche danger will no longer be driven by wet avalanche concerns as we look to Friday. Instead, we will see a return to new snow avalanche problems, and most likely a wind slab avalanche problem given the snow forecast. Hopefully we see some decent snow accumulation to bury the dust and a return to a few days of creamy riding on that new snow. 

 

In yesterday's forecast, Zach had a good summary of the avalanche activity that has occurred this week which is again posted below. 

(April 12) It's disheartening to watch our near-record snowpack fall apart this week, as the dust layer and near-record temperatures are accelerating melt and an ongoing wet cycle. With another poor refreeze expected on Tuesday night, all of the red flags are flying for continued natural wet slab activity and deeply gouging wet loose avalanches, provided cloud cover holds off for a portion of the day. Scroll through our observations page and gallery below to get a taste of what to expect in the backcountry. A few highlights include these tree snappers in the Anthracites, a D3 off of Peeler Peak, and Gibson Ridge selfishly trying to get more attention, again. The most dangerous activity thus far has been on east, south, and west aspects near and below treeline where meltwater is most severe. On Tuesday, we saw indications of the snowpack starting to cross the threshold into dangerous territory above treeline as well, with a few wet slabs releasing from shallow/rocky terrain. Although we haven't seen any wet slabs or deep gouging wet loose activity on northerly aspects, a wet slab was observed on a northeast aspect below treeline in the San Juans on Tuesday.

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