Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Hightened avalanche conditions exist, requiring careful evaluations to manage a diverse list of avalanche problems. Today, the most serious avalanche concern is a persistent slab problem on northerly and easterly-facing slopes, where large avalanches remain possible to trigger. On other aspects, thinner storm slab avalanches remain possible at upper elevations, and warm temperatures today may even produce hybrid, spring-like avalanches on steep, sunny slopes. Lower elevations have a lower likelihood of triggering these avalanche problems, and low-angle terrain remains another easy way to avoid avalanche exposure.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The snowpack on the north side of the compass holds a variable mix of weak snow. The primary layers of concern are facets in the bottom half of the snowpack from the December drought, and the potintal for a colasable crust between ~10,000ft and ~11,000ft created by a rain event on Christmas day. Persistent weak layers have been further documented on some high-elevation southeasterly facing slopes. A natural avalanche cycle occurred on Friday, and severl human-triggered avalanches were also triggered in the past few days. This snowpack structure is variable due to past wind events and well-above-average temperatures. This variability can create inconsistent feedback and problem distribution. So, obvious signs of instability may not provide reliable feedback before you trigger an avalanche.  You can reliably avoid the problem by choosing slopes less than 30 degrees and not connected to steeper slopes above, or head to sunnier aspects where sensitive weak layers are less common.

    Thicker crusts, buried in the snowpack, on all aspects have made this avalanche problem unlikely at lower elevations. 

    A mix of avalanche problems on the east face of Gothic Mountain. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Last Friday's storm created thick slabs around the compass. These slabs have become notably more stubborn to human triggering over the last couple of days, and will most likely not provide obvious signs of instability. Continue to exercise caution at upper elevations where this avalanche problem will take the longest to heal. The unseasonably warm temperatures today may create a hybrid spring-like avalanche problem on steep southerly-facing slopes, such as a wet loose avalanche or roller balls that could trigger a wider slab avalanche.

    A recent soft slab avalanche in Red Lady Bowl.

Avalanche Discussion

Good visibility on Saturday allowed us to gather data on the recent avalanche cycle. Storm slab avalanches occurred around the compass, and we have spent less time documenting those avalanches as they are continuing to heal. The persistent avalanche problem deserves focus, as it will be the lasting problem. The avalanche cycle between 1/1 and 1/3, has 58 documented avalanches so far. If we filter that data to include only avalanches labeled as persistent slabs, we are down to 38 documented avalanches. This data highlights the "most likely" areas where this avalanche problem exists. Northerly and easterly facing slopes at near and above treeline elevations. These avalanches paint the bullseye for the most dangerous terrain, but of course, there will be outliers. Persistent weak layers exist on other aspects, and the snowpack structure on those other aspects has simply made them comparitbly less reactive. 

Comparing the avalanche data between the two forecast areas, there has been significantly more avalanche activity documented in the NW Mountain forecast area than in the SE Mountain forecast area. While there haven't been any observations in upper Brush Creek or upper Cement Creek, the primary reason for the difference in avalanche activity was the amount of load that occurred during the last storm. Measured snow totals in the NW Mountains have been up to 1.5" of SWE. In comparison, the SE Mountains had accumulations in the .6 to .8 SWE range. Of course, more snow accumulated at higher elevations or at different locations in those forecast areas, but that helps show the difference between the forecast areas. 

Regions covered