Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A person may trigger a very large avalanche failing on weak snow buried 2 to 4' deep. This dangerous setup was responsible for a major avalanche cycle last week and is still showing clear signs of concern. Avalanches may be triggered from low-angle terrain connected to steeper slopes. The best way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling on or below steep terrain.

___________________________________

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS: Support this avalanche forecast with Pick.Click.Give. today! Please consider participating in the Pick.Click.Give program as you apply for your Alaska PFD this year. Your contribution to the Friends of the Chugach Avalanche Center helps to fund 50% of our annual operating budget. This covers weather station maintenance, safety equipment, forecaster salaries, research projects, and ensures professional, daily avalanche advisories all winter long for your favorite backcountry ski and snowmachine zones on the Chugach National Forest and Chugach State Park. THANK YOU!

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: There was a widespread avalanche cycle last weekend, with multiple natural and human-triggered avalanches recorded from Anchorage to Seward.  

    There is still a good chance a person will trigger a large avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow buried 2 to 4' deep. This is the same layer that was responsible for the impressive avalanche cycle last weekend, and is still showing clear warning signs. Yesterday, skiers on Fresno and Summit Peak noted significant rolling collapses traveling hundreds of feet — an unmistakable indicator of unstable snow that we don't always see with these persistent weak layers. The layer is buried slightly deeper in the Lost Lake and Snug Harbor zones, but the overall snowpack structure is very similar.

    This setup with a stiff slab on top of a persistent weak layer of facets is not the type of problem we usually deal with. Historically, this type of weak layer has been responsible for the majority of fatalities in our forecast area. We've had a week of warm temperatures without any major loading, but the snowpack is still reactive. While it may be slowly gaining strength, for now it's clearly still a major concern. We continue to see large collapses, poor stability test results, and people triggering large avalanches remotely from low-angle terrain connected to steeper slopes. This behavior is consistent from Girdwood to Seward. This is the kind of scenario that catches people by surprise, and is best managed by avoiding traveling on or below steep terrain. 

    (1/19/2026)

    Snowmachine-triggered avalanche in Lost Lake. This is a short slope, but the debris was concentrated in a gully. Nobody was caught or carried that we are aware of.

Regions covered