Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack is clearly telling us conditions are dangerous right now. Large to very large human-triggered avalanches occurred on both sides of Turnagain Pass from Eddie's to Lynx Creek in the last few days. It is likely a person could trigger one of these avalanches up to 3' deep at any elevation in Summit Lake today too. They can be triggered from anywhere on the slope including from below on flat terrain in places that would normally be safe. The way to have a safe day is to plan a route that remains far away from steep slopes (even small ones) and stick to the plan.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent avalanches: One large natural avalanche was reported on the south side of Tenderfoot on Saturday. There have been at least 13 large to very large human-triggered avalanches in Turnagain Pass since Sunday, January 11th. Many of these were triggered remotely, meaning the avalanche was some distance away from the trigger. No one has been buried or injured as far as we know. The locations and reports of these avalanches are as follows: Repeat Offender on Seattle Ridge,  Lynx Creek, Tincan Common, Eddie's Headwall, Main Bowl, and near the weather station on Seattle Ridge

    The same conditions exist in Summit Lake as in Turnagain Pass. Check your rescue gear before you leave the parking lot. Most of the recent avalanches have been triggered in places that are usually safe so these are conditions that can catch us by surprise. It will be important today to avoid being on or underneath steep slopes even if the terrain is flat. This is the type of set up where a slope could avalanche that already has tracks so avoid getting lured in to those slopes. Even small feaures could be a problem, especially if they end in a gully feature where the snow could pile up deep. 

    Unfortunately, this problem probably won't be going away anytime soon. The weak snow that is causing these dangerous conditions developed over time during the cold December drought and it takes time for it to strengthen. 

     

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds were just barely high enough to build some fresh slabs last night in Summit Lake. Ridgetop winds today are forecast in the 15 to 20 mph range so watch for blowing snow in the upper elevations to know fresh slabs continue to form. These wind slabs are in the same place as the more dangerous persistent slab problem discussed above so the best way to avoid all of this is to stick to low angle terrain and stay far away from anything steep above.

    (1/6/2026)

    This peak is in the Seward zone, but it shows snow blowing off the ridges, which is a sign wind slabs are forming.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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