Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground at all elevations.  These persistent weak layers are buried under cohesive slabs of varying depths and hardnesses.  Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud collapses may not be present in travels and give you a false sense of safety.  You are more likely to impact deeper buried weak layers where the overlying slab is thinner. These likely trigger points are typically found on the margins of the slabs, near trees, and rock outcrops. Sticking to wind-sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees without steep slopes above will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Facets and depth hoar that formed during November and early December dry periods can be found on most slopes and are buried under 1 to 1.5 meters of snow from storms earlier in January.  In pits, these weak layers have been showing signs of strengthening as we push further away from the last loading event.  On most slopes, these weak layers will be difficult to trigger unless you find a "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner.  It may not be the first person on the slope to get it to release, and tracks on a slope are not an indication that it is safe. Taking the time to dig a pit on the slope to plan to play on, to see if this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak is present is a great way to assess if this persistent slab problem exists.  You can also avoid this problem, by sticking to lower-angle slopes without steep slopes above.  

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack is finally getting a much-needed break from a very active couple of weeks to begin January.  During this period close to 3 feet of snow fell on top of a shallow and faceted snowpack,  During this time we had several large natural avalanches and widespread signs of instability with each storm. Over the last week, faceted weak layers have been slowly healing and strengthening in a deepening snowpack.  As we see a downward trend in avalanche activity the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has been decreasing, but the consequences still remain quite high.  If you were to get a slope to release, it could take with it most of the season's snowpack. 

At upper elevations, strong winds have scoured some slopes and drifted snow onto others into harder slabs on the surface.  Last Monday's strong wind event came with a more easterly wind component and loaded slopes in atypical places than the usual SW/W wind direction we typically see.  At upper elevations you may encounter pockets of stubborn wind slabs.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows or hollow drummy-sounding slabs underfoot. A smaller avalanche on the surface may get weaker layers deeper down in the snowpack to fail creating a larger more dangerous avalanche.  

Below treeline, slabs are not as thick and dense and may be easier to impact weak layers. In the last several days we've seen near-surface faceting on the surface, but there is still enough of a cohesive slab at these lower elevations to communicate across a slope.  It's already starting to be that time of year when a higher sun angle and our intense sun at our southerly latitude is impacting some of our solar aspects and forming crusts on the surface. Although not a concern now, they could become problematic down the road once we get more snow.    

 

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