Curiously straight-forward these days-
MODERATE avalanche danger is found on upper elevation shady slopes, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in steep, rocky terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered wind drifts, along with more dangerous slides breaking to weak layers now buried deep in our snowpack are POSSIBLE.
Generally LOW avalanche danger is found on most south facing terrain along with mid and lower elevation shady slopes.
A few old wind drifts linger on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, but are camouflaged under a few inches of fresh snow, making them hard to detect. Manageable in size and breaking at or below our skis, board, or sled this is an easy avalanche dragon to avoid... lose the wind and you lose the problem.
Can I trigger a deep, dangerous avalanche that breaks to the midpack November facets? Yeah... but I've really gotta hunt this one out and all the planets have to align to ruin my day. Likely suspects include steep, rocky, upper elevation terrain where the snowpack is lean or slopes that avalanched earlier this season and are therefore slightly more thin and fragile. And remember... all I need to do is find one weakness in the pack, pull the rug out from underneath, and the entire roof crashes down on me. It's a low probability/high consequence scenario. And unless you've got avalanche goggles and can peer into the layers of the snowpack from a distance, now is the time to continue stepping out cautiously, but with intent, gathering as much snowpack intel as we can along the way.
Other than a shallow wind drift or two, no significant avy activity to report. But a slew of Uinta avy obs are foundHERE.
Nowcast- Dang... we didn't get the powder party invite. Instead, under mostly cloudy skies, light snow dribbles in, producing a thin coat of white paint with just a couple inches across the range. Temperatures register in the teens and low 20's, whilst west and southwest winds blowing 5-10 mph barely spin ridgetop anemometers.
Forecast- A robust storm spinning in the south half of the state leaves us in no-mans land this morning, but a better shot of snow slides in the Uinta zone later this afternoon and 6"-8" by Tuesday morning seems reasonable. While we patiently await its arrival, look for mostly cloudy skies, light snow showers and temperatures climbing into the mid 20's. Expect west and southwest winds to bump into the 20's and 30's as the day wares on
Futurecast- Nothing huge, but unsettled weather weather sticks with us through late Tuesday and we'll stack up additional snow. A break is slated for Wednesday with a stronger system on tap for Thursday.
Our good friends and partners at the NWS lay out the timeline for our next series of storms in the graphic above
Steer yourself toward sheltered shady slopes and riding conditions are surprisingly good. Christian Koenig put that theory to test earlier this weekend.
Huge thanks for all the great obs streaming in from the eastern front. Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Such a rock star! Huge thanks to Joey Manship for all the hard work and Herculean efforts getting the Nobletts Beacon Park up and running. Located on the northeast corner of the parking lot, give it a go and practice your rescue skills on a down day, or while you wait for your crew before a ride.
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
Issued at 03:43 on Monday January 16th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday January 17th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
