Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could still trigger an avalanche in wind-drifted snow where it rests over weak snow or crusts. Steep slopes below ridgelines, the base of cliffs, and confined gullies are likely places to encounter this problem. Look for textured, rippled snow surfaces, and steer around steep terrain where you find a thick layer of stiff snow over softer snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Use caution on leeward slopes over 35 degrees where westerly wind deposited storm snow on the 10-11th. Along with typical drifting below ridges, you may find wind-stiffened snow in unusual locations and lower on slopes than usual. With the previous strong winds, many surfaces are stiff and wind-textured. It's important to distinguish where the stiff surfaces transition, becoming deep enough for wind slabs. You can use your probe or pole to feel for how thick these slabs are, and consider steering around steep slopes where it's more than just a few inches thick. While the likelihood of triggering a wind slab is decreasing with mild weather, this weak interface is lingering longer than a typical windslab. You can use simple tests like hand shears, test slopes, and tilt tests to evaluate the bond. Recent avalanches and cracks shooting through the snow are "red flag" indicators of the danger. 

    There's a chance that you could still trigger isolated avalanches in very steep, wind-sheltered terrain. 7-9" of recent snow rests on a variety of thin, weak layers, including stellars, facets, or surface hoar over a crust. The crust is most prominent on steep southerly aspects and below 5,100ft. There is a lot of variability in the weak layer and crusts below the storm snow and wind slabs, complicating these problems. So, give yourself some additional margins of safety to account for this uncertainty.

    (1/11/2025) Crown of intentionally triggered windslab, NW ridge Tye Peak. Photo: Ryan Minton

Avalanche Discussion

Monday's weather might look similar to Sunday, with high passing clouds, mild temperatures, and breezy conditions at upper elevations. On Sunday, high clouds moved into the area around midday, limiting the potential for wet loose avalanches. There is a chance that slightly warmer temperatures and more sun will increase wet loose avalanche activity on Monday. So, if you notice a lack of high cloud cover and snow becoming moist and rollerballing, wet avalanches on steep south-facing terrain are more likely. If snow surfaces become heavy, consider moving to lower-angle terrain or shadier slopes. Potentially more likely are blobs of snow shedding off steep rocks in the sun, so keep an eye out for overhead hazards and don't linger below them in the warm sun. 

After an active start to the weekend, observers at Stevens Pass reported indicators that the new snow is slowly gaining strength on Sunday and Monday. There were some isolated small avalanches and lingering signs of instability on Sunday, and on Monday, observers reported stability test results becoming more stubborn. An NWAC forecaster near Skyline Lake found numerous resistant and non-propagating test results and couldn't trigger cracking or unstable snow on unsupported convex features. They did fine large facets and, to a lesser extent, surface hoar buried in some locations. The most problematic snowpack structure was on steeper, southerly aspects. The recent snow is cohesive and over 4-finger hard in some locations. 

On Saturday, observers triggered numerous avalanches in wind-loaded and sheltered terrain, failing on a weak layer/crust (1/10) interface. Observers in the Skyline Lake, Lichtenberg Mtn, Yodelin, and Lanham Lake areas reported triggered avalanches, propagating test results, or other signs of instability. Below last week's crust, there are no layers of immediate concern. At lower elevations, prepare for challenging travel on breakable crusts and refrozen chunder under the forest canopy. 

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