Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions are dangerous today and there are good chances the weight of a person could trigger an avalanche that is 2 to 3' deep or more. This problem exists above about 2,000' where the thick crust below this elevation begins to thin. With the sensitivity that the snowpack was demonstrating yesterday, avalanches may be triggered remotely (from a distance or from below). This warrants caution when approaching slopes above 30 degrees. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Lower 48 Avalanche Accidents:  It has been a tragic couple weeks in the lower 48 with six avalanche fatalities in Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. These mark the first US fatal accidents for the season. Our thoughts are with our friends to the south and our deepest condolences to all those affected by these events.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Conditions are dangerous and touchy despite a break between storms. LOTS of red flags were observed yesterday including many recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and whumpfing. These are clear signs that the snowpack needs more time to adjust. We are within the 48 hour window when most avalanches occur after a storm. The chance of triggering an avalanche is going to go up as we climb in elevation because there is a thick crust on the surface down low that begins to thin around 2,000'. Stepping off the skin track or tip toeing on a test slope may be all we need to do to get a scary red flag like a whumpf or small avalanche. Check out this observation for a sense of how scary conditions were yesterday just above 2,000' on Tincan.

    The reason conditions are so touchy after this storm is because the new 2 to 3' of wet heavy snow fell on weak snow (near surface facets) that developed during the period of calm weather. This is a bad (upside down) set up and it is likely to stick around for a while.

    Wind slab: With wind speeds of over 100 mph during this storm there are areas where the slabs could be 4' deep or more in the upper elevations. These are places to avoid for now.

    Cornice Fall: Large cornices are looming on the ridgelines. They may not fail naturally with a break in weather, but if they fall they could trigger a large slab avalanche that could travel well into the treeline elevation band. Give them space on the ridge and watch for them above.

    Glide avalanches: We haven't seen any glide avalanche activity except for the one piece of a glide that failed on the south face of Tincan late last week. Glide cracks, however, have been continuing to creep downhill so keep an eye out for those and avoid spending time under them if possible. 

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