Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Highlights

The main concern is the potential to trigger a large avalanche on a buried weak layer up to 3' deep at upper elevations. Fresh wind slabs 1+' deep are also likely to release naturally or be triggered by a person today. We recommend a cautious approach to avalanche terrain and assessing the snowpack carefully.

A lull between storms is expected this afternoon before another very strong storm impacts the area. Avalanche danger will rise to HIGH overnight tonight with the potential for very large natural avalanches. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Eastern Talkeetna Mtns - We've heard reports of remotely triggered avalanches near Gunsight Mtn in the eastern Talkeetnas. This area has no avalanche forecast and can harbor a shallow and weak snowpack. If you are heading north seeking dry snow this weekend be sure to assess the snowpack before entering avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Summit Lake received much less precipitation in the first wave of the storm last night compared to other areas, with about 0.2 to 0.3" of water or 2 to 4" of snow above the rainline.  However, the winds were transporting a lot of snow yesterday which can load unstable slopes even more quickly than snowfall. There are several buried weak layers in the Summit snowpack and our main concern is the potential for very large human triggered or natural avalanches on buried weak layers up to 3' deep. These are most likely above 2500' where the snowpack has remained dry for most of the season. 

    Persistent weak layers are difficult to assess in the field and can give little feedback before causing large avalanches. We recommend sticking to lower angle terrain and avoiding any overhead slopes being actively wind loaded to avoid this problem.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh wind slabs 1+' deep formed yesterday as the strong east winds associated with the weekend storm picked up. These are most likely to be located along ridgelines and convex features at upper elevations. To identify areas with wind slabs look for shooting cracks, hollow feeling snow pillows, or use small test slopes to see how reactive the surface snow is to the weight of a skier. Smaller wind slabs can act as a trigger for a larger avalanche on a buried weak layer. 

    Cornices have been rapidly growing with all the new snow and wind this week and could fail naturally as windy conditions continue today. Visibility might make it difficult to see overhead terrain, so we recommend giving known corniced ridgelines a wide buffer to avoid exposure to potential cornice fall. 

    (1/10/2025)

    Snow being transported by wind on Butch 

    Photo: Michael Kerst

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