East Slopes Central

It will be another clear, sunny day on Tuesday, and upper elevation temperatures will be warmer than they have been in a while. Be cognizant of overhead hazards such as cliffs and cornices where snow could fall from or a small, wet loose avalanche in an isolated piece of terrain. Carrying a sharp piece of equipment like crampons or a whippet is strongly recommended for moving along slick surfaces where the snow is not softening.

Tuesday is forecasted to be the warmest day the region has seen in quite some time, although a strong temperature inversion will keep things cold below 4500-5000 feet. The snow on south and west facing slopes has gone through numerous melt-freeze cycles, and crusts will need to break down before any snow starts to move. We don't expect to see a widespread avalanche cycle on Tuesday, but a wet snow avalanche won't be improbable. If you find heavy, sticky snow that you're punching deeply through, mark that as a time to find shadier aspects to ski or ride on. We are more concerned about overhead hazards influenced by this t-shirt worthy weather. Sagging cornices should be viewed with a healthy dose of suspicion. Give cliffs and rocky features exposed to the sun a bit more space. Keep your head up, and don't assume the snowpack will be as stable as it has been in days past despite the weather feeling much the same. 

The snowpack is Variable right now (capitalized for emphasis)! You'll find either breakable or supportable crusts, wind-textured snow, and recycled powder (facets) on shadier slopes. Sunnier aspects have crusts of varying thickness, soft "corn" snow if you time it right, or no snow at all where sun and wind have scoured it away. The snow is especially icy and irregular in the trees, but reports show that travel is getting a little easier. Be prepared to deal with variable conditions by bringing appropriate gear you know how to use and allowing extra time to reach your destination. 

If you poke into higher, rockier areas, there’s always an outside chance you’ll find a small, isolated pocket of wind drifted snow. An observation from Cascade Pass last week provides a great example of these potential rogue avalanches. Use clues like rippled snow surfaces and cornices to identify the previous wind-loading pattern. Wind-loaded snow nearby will look comparatively smooth and rounded.

We're all thinking about the end to this extended high pressure. Confidence is building that a storm will come in right side up (start out warm and then get colder) on Friday. It's still a little too early to tell what precipitation totals will be for the east side of the Cascade Crest. As anticipation for changing conditions builds, keep tracking weak snow surfaces and be ready for elevated avalanche hazard.