Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Wednesday will be warm at middle and upper elevations, upping the chances of seeing wet snow instability in the afternoon. Comparatively, you'll want to carry crampons or a whippet to contend with hard crusts and ice on colder slopes. Be prepared for the variability of the snowpack and dial back your terrain choices on southerly terrain to slopes less than 35 degrees if you see fresh rollerballs or recent avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    The likelihood of triggering a wet loose avalanche in terrain that sees direct sun and warm temperatures will jump up for a few hours in the afternoon on Wednesday. As the day warms up, the expected progression of wet loose avalanches will be rollerballs and pinwheels that lead to point releases. Give cliffs, rocky features, and sagging cornices exposed to the sun a bit more space if you travel below them. Other signs of warming are sticky snow surfaces and water dripping from cliffs. If the snow under your skis or sled begins to feel heavy and you're punching through deeper than your ankle, move to lower angle or shadier slopes.

    (1/22/2025)

    Wet loose avalanches, likely from Jan 14-15th in the Entiat drainage. Big Hill, 6,150ft, SE

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

For such a gloriously beautiful day Wednesday will be, it'll be one of those days that your forecaster loses a bit of sleep over. We have a lot of uncertainty as to how avalanche hazard will play out in this zone. A number of factors - temperatures, sun, wind, and relative humidity, to name a few - are at play and competing against each other.  Ultimately, it's up to you to recognize signs of wet snow instability and know when to pull back from recreating on steep, south-facing slopes. Despite seeming counterintuitive, anticipate considerably warmer temperatures the higher in elevation you travel for most of the day. Don’t linger in terrain traps where avalanche debris can concentrate, and be aware of steep terrain overhead where snow might fall down from. 

The snowpack is vivaciously variable right now. An account of skiing at Mission Ridge Ski Area on Tuesday relayed that even the difference between one side of a mogul versus the other was notable. You'll find either breakable or supportable crusts, hard wind-textured snow, and soft "recycled powder" (facets) on shadier slopes. Sunnier aspects have crusts of varying thickness and soft "corn" snow if you time it right. The snow is distinctly icy and irregular in the trees, but reports show that travel is getting easier. Be prepared to deal with variable conditions by bringing appropriate gear you know how to use and allowing extra time to reach your destination.

The countdown is on for the return of stormy skies near the end of the week. Confidence is good that the storm will come in right side up (start out warm and then get colder), and current models show an increase in precipitation totals. As anticipation for this delightful snowpack refresh builds, take some time to track weak surfaces in your go-to locations so you'll have a better idea of what is lurking below once snow has fallen on top. This kind of information will be marvelously helpful to NWAC Forecasters too. Submit an observation to the website or Avy mobile app.

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