Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could encounter a rouge block of snow shedding from steep rocky faces or road cuts if the sun and warm temperatures manage to weaken the snowpack. Pay attention to what’s above you. Look for routes that help minimize the time you spend underneath these steep sunny slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Maybe if the surface crust breaks down you’ll be able to push a small wet loose slide in very steep terrain, but that’s not really what we’re worried about. Instead, it’s the sun warming rocky slopes and causing blobs of snow to shed from these features. In some cases, they could trigger additional avalanches or entrain snow on the slopes below. In these conditions, it’s all about managing your overhead hazard. 

    What’s hanging above your head? These slopes could warm faster than where you’re standing if they’re basking in the sun. Don’t hang out underneath steep sunny slopes, and, when possible, pick routes that limit any time you spend under these areas. 

    This problem isn’t a slam dunk. Cool winds and a few clouds will try to keep the snowpack crusty. If it doesn’t thaw, you might not see any avalanche issues at all.

    (1/6/2025) Rocky slopes like those in this photo could produce a wet slide of some variety if they warm in the sun. IN this image you can see several rounds of avalanche activity from this past storm.  Photo: NPS Rangers/Mans

Avalanche Discussion

While a surface crust helps limit the avalanche danger, this snowpack is anything but “locked up.” Start your day with the mindset that wet avalanches could happen, then if it’s cloudier and cooler than predicted, you can loosen up your terrain management. 

A dusting of snow Tuesday night in the northern half of the zone won’t do much to change conditions. By the morning the trend should be for drying and clearing. This time onshore (westerly) winds will help mix out any valley inversions and allow lower and middle elevations to warm. 

A breakable crust caps the surface to at least 6000-6500ft in most of the zone. This layer will need to break down before any real avalanche hazard develops. Unfortunately, this and other related travel challenges could pose the biggest danger of the day. In addition to the breakable crust, bullet-proof treebombs, frozen avalanche debris, wind-scoured ice, downed limbs, and open creeks will all make travel… less than ideal. Give yourself plenty of time to deal with these challenges. 

Our prolonged stormy period came to an end on Sunday (Jan 5), but not without a grand finale of natural and triggered avalanches. Observations from all across the zone document the extent of this cycle. While most of the activity is over, if you make it high enough to get above the crust, you could still deal with lingering weak layers from these storms or freshly drifted wind slabs. Given the stormy weather, we haven’t heard much from up high in quite some time. Those upper elevation bands probably hold our greatest source of uncertainty. 

Regions covered