Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We have issued a Backcountry Avalanche Warning through the National Weather Service. Avalanche danger is HIGH at all elevations as heavy precipitation and strong winds will make very dangerous conditions where natural avalanches are likely. These could be large and run to valley bottoms. Traveling in avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    We are in the throes of a region wide storm event that is estimated to deliver 2 to 4” of water by Sunday evening. Today the storm looks to continue pummeling the peninsula with heavy rain/snowfall and strong southeast winds gusting over 50 mph. Turnagain Pass may see 1.5” of water falling as snow (8” to 14”) above 2000’. Large natural avalanches in the new snow and windblown snow 2 to 4’ deep will be likely. These have the potential to run into rain saturated snow carrying avalanche debris to valley bottoms. Today may be a good day to wake up slow and do some puzzling. If anyone decides to venture in the storm to test out their gore-tex be sureto avoid traveling on or underneath steep terrain.

    The storm is supposed to reach its peak today.  The good news is that the rain/snow line is forecast to decrease to 1000’ by Sunday evening with another 1” of water expected. 

    (1/25/2025)

    The atmospheric river forecast to deliever heavy rain and snow potentially up to 2 to 4" by Sunday evening to most of the peninsula. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    If the weather verifies natural wet snow avalanches will be likely below 2000’. Rollerballs falling or being blown off of rocky outcrops or trees are clues that the snow near the surface is becoming saturated and losing strength. This problem is most concerning on steep slopes above you that could entrain a lot of snow in gullies and terrain traps where avalanche debris tends to pile up.  The safests option today is to steer clear of these areas especailly slopes above you that are steep enough to slide. 

    (1/24/2025)

    Roller balls are a good clue that the snow is warming up and begininng to lose strength. 

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

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