Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The weather has quieted down significantly, but southwest ridgetop winds are forecast today. If this occurs, fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep will build in the upper elevations. There's a chance a person or machine could trigger an older, deeper (up to 3') and more stubborn wind slab above 1,000' from the strong winds that occurred Tuesday evening.  Wind slabs can be found below ridgelines and on the edges of cross loaded gullies. Softer snow can be found in areas protected from Tuesday's strong winds. This zone has only been open to snowmachine access for 1 week so we have very little information and recommend extra caution.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

This is a new forecast zone for us. We are excited to gather more information from both our field days as well as from folks out riding. If you get out in the Snug Harbor or Lost Lake areas we'd love to hear what you see. Drop us a quick note or send in some photos on our observation page if you have a minute! If you haven't seen it yet, check out our field day from Friday near V-Max.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The Primrose weather station (at 2,030') recorded 6" of new snow with the storm on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is likely more snow in the upper elevations especially closer to the coast.  Wind slabs with various sizes and sensitivity could be found today. Watch for blowing snow as a sign fresh new winds slabs are forming that should be fairly small. Feel for firm snow over softer snow to know you are traveling on a wind slab and a shooting crack means the slope is prime to avalanche. The old stubborn ones are the ones that will let you get way out onto a slope before releasing. 

    Thank you to those that have helped us gather information since Snug Harbor opened to snowmachine use on January 16. We have just been to this area once so we have quite a bit of uncertainty. On our trip to Snug on Friday, January 17 we saw large avalanches in the V-Max area (bigger than any we saw last year). We urge caution and an assessment mindset as we gather information in this area.

    Cornice: Cornices may not fail naturally today, but they have grown large after all of these storms and strong winds. Give them some space on the ridgelines as they could still be sensitive to the weight of a person or machine and they break back further than we expect. Check out this interesting observation from the Snug Harbor/V-Max area on Saturday. Some riders found large cracks in the snow that were 15 to 20' back from some cornice edges and big enough for a sled to fall into.

    Dry Loose Avalanches: Dry loose avalanches continue to be observed in our forecast areas. These should be fairly small, but watch for consequences below like rocks or cliffs in case we get caught up in "sluff" by surprise.

    (1/17/2025)

    This photo is from last Friday, but it shows wind blowing in the treeline area of Snug Harbor. Watch for blowing snow as a sign wind slabs are forming today.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

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