Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Recent natural avalanches and signs of instability indicate sensitive avalanche conditions on northerly-facing terrain where recent storm snow accumulated on weak, old snow.  Higher elevation terrain and wind-loaded features present the most trouble.  Most avalanches remain small, but being knocked down and dragged through the shallow snowpack could be dangerous.  You can find safer options at lower elevations, on slopes 30 degrees or less on problematic aspects, or on terrain that was bare ground before the recent storm.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    It may be easy to trigger soft slabs about 10 to 16 inches thick (thicker on wind-loaded features) on the north half of the compass, where the new snow accumulated on fragile facets.  Beware of remote triggering potential on steep slopes above you.  Shooting cracks and recent avalanche activity are clear signs of instability: manage the problem by choosing smaller, less consequential terrain or lower slope angles.   You can reliably avoid the problem by traveling where the new snow fell on bare ground on southerly aspects.  Some high elevation, southerly aspects held old crusts before the storm: evaluate how well the new snow is bonding to these crusts before committing to steep terrain.  

    (12/1/2025)

    An example of a natural avalanche observed on Monday (northeast-facing above treeline).  You can trigger a similar avalanche on wind-drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass today.

    Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Below the new snow,  dense old slabs one to two feet linger on previously drifted, high-elevation northerly slopes.  An avalanche in the storm snow could step down and create a larger-than-expected avalanche.  Beware of previously cross-drifted terrain in high northerly areas that attract early-season riders; these features might have the problematic ingredients of a harder slab over old faceted October snow.  Large collapses, like this observation from Cinnamon, are clear signs you’ve found this problem.

    A remotely triggered slab on the north side of Mt. Baldy on Nov 22.  This slope held an old layer of weak snow from October's snowfall, buried beneath 1 to 2 feet of drifted snow.  

Avalanche Discussion

Natural avalanche activity observed on Monday paints a good picture of the hazards you could encounter today (Slate River Valley, avalanche data table).  Slopes facing the north half of the compass near and above treeline show the most activity. This is due to an increased amount of snowfall and wind drifting.  Expect to find more problematic slopes in the Northwest Mountains due to larger storm totals and fewer in the Southeast Mountains.

Observers on Sunday and Monday reported numerous collapses and cracking while traveling through northerly-facing terrain, so expect similar conditions today.  Even though near and above treeline terrain is the most likely place for you to trigger an avalanche, a few below treeline slopes could produce a small avalanche, just less commonly.  Choosing lower-angle terrain is the simplest solution to managing the hazard on suspect aspects.

Enjoy the new snowfall, but use caution on your travels.  There is no shortage of 'snow snakes' hiding just below the surface; expect to tag some rocks, sticks, and bushes.  Cold temperatures would exacerbate taking a ride in an avalanche or an injury from hitting buried objects.

 

Upcoming Events: 

  • Holiday Tree Sale: December 3rd-5th from 3 pm-7 pm at Ace Hardware
  • Avalanche Awareness Night: Saturday, December 6th at the Center for the Arts. Doors at 5, show at 6:30.
  • Beacon Brush-Up: Sunday, December 7th, 9 am - 2 pm at the Community School

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