Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Light wind-loading yesterday kicked off a round of small natural and human-triggered avalanches, with at least one large persistent slab avalanche also releasing naturally. You will need to manage these avalanche problems today, most commonly near previously wind-loaded terrain features or in northerly-facing alpine bowls. You can find safer riding at lower elevations, where a keen powder hound can find just enough snow to ride on grassy slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Light NW winds yesterday kicked off a round of small avalanches. The Scarps Ridge weather station at 12,000ft recorded a bump in westerly winds this morning. Increasing with 20-30mpg average wind speeds and gusts into the 40s. We can expect those slabs to have grown overnight and remain sensitive to triggering today. 

    A small, skier-triggered wind slab that was kicked off yesterday. North aspect, 12,000ft. Cinnamon Mountain. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Persistent weak layers are widespread across multiple aspects. The more variable component of the avalanche problem is the distribution of slabs above those weak layers. Use caution around previously wind-loaded terrain features and higher-elevation concave bowls, where there is an increased chance of finding those slabs. Human-triggered avalanches are possible where you find this strong over weak layering, and natural avalanches are also possible, below ridgelines that are seeing active wind-loading. 

    A trio of fresh avalanches that ran naturally on 12/4 during periods of light wind-loading. Purple Ridge.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday was notable for a couple of reasons. We observed the first large avalanche of this season. New snow has slowly accumulated this week, and the avalanche problem has now begun to grow in size. The other notable was that just this light wind-loading triggered this avalanche and many other small avalanches. This could be Mother Nature's early warning of the avalanche cycle that will be kicked off by the next incoming storm. We will see the avalanche danger begin to rise today in areas that see active wind-loading, before ramping up into Saturday with the arrival of a strong wind event and accumulating snow. 

A layer of weak snow is fairly continuous on the north side of the compass from snowfall in October and mid-November.  A storm last Sunday, November 30th, deposited 8 to 16 inches of snow across this weak layer, accompanied by northwesterly winds strong enough to redistribute the snow at upper elevations. Since Monday, billy barr in Gothic has recorded another .54" of SWE.  A small natural cycle was documented on Monday, and signs of instability were observedfollowing that storm earlier this week. (Anthracites, Mount Baldy, Baxter Basin). While yesterday's small avalanche cycle can be viewed in this observation.  

Upcoming Events: 

  • Holiday Tree Sale: December 3rd-5th from 3 pm-7 pm at Ace Hardware
  • Avalanche Awareness Night: Saturday, December 6th at the Center for the Arts. Doors at 5, show at 6:30.
  • Beacon Brush-Up: Sunday, December 7th, 9 am - 2 pm at the Community School

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