Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Recently formed soft slabs of wind-drifted snow exist above treeline on slopes that face N-NE-E. The danger is MODERATE, and it is POSSIBLE for skiers and riders to trigger small avalanches in recently drifted snow. Becoming more the exception than the rule, it is still POSSIBLE to trigger a deep hard slab avalanche failing on buried persistent weak layers. This problem exists near treeline and above on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E and the danger remains MODERATE. Very steep slopes with a shallow snowpack are the most suspect areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Shallow soft slabs of wind-drifted snow exist on leeward slopes in the alpine. In my travels yesterday, these slabs were easily identified by their pillowy nature and smooth rounded appearance. Recent drifts will remain sensitive today. While they may not be large enough to bury a person, they can easily knock you off your feet. This type of avalanche can quickly get out of hand in complex terrain.

    Drifted snow on the NE face of Tuk.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    Warm temperatures, percolating meltwater in the snowpack, and several nights with a solid refreeze have significantly decreased the likelihood for triggering an avalanche on a persistent weak layer. However, layers of cold, dry faceted snow still remain on steep, northerly aspects near treeline, and in some areas above. Shallower snowpack areas are where you are most likely to find trouble and any avalanche triggered would be deep and dangerous. You can pull out your probe to determine snowpack depth. If you are finding depths of a 180 cms or more, you are probably okay but remember that shallow trigger points exist. Likely trigger points include steep convexities, thin slab margins, and shallow rocky areas. Sticking to broad, planar slopes will help minimize your risk.

Special Announcement

Construction continues on the Loop Road Mon-Fri. It will be closed near Pack Creek from 8:30-5:30.

Geyser Pass Road: Expect to find a few inches of fresh snow on Geyser Pass road. 4x4 recommended.

Grooming Conditions: Grooming is done for the season.

Motorized Users—Please consider taking this 5-minute survey to help researchers better understand avalanche education participation and safety preparedness. Responses are anonymous and confidential. Thank you!

Recent Activity

A snowboarder triggered a large and dangerous avalanche on Horse Head Bowl in the Abajo mountains Saturday. We are extremely grateful for a positive outcome and his thorough and thoughtful report.

See the complete avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 5" 72 Hour Snow: 5" Season Total Snow: 128" Depth at Gold Basin: 47"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WSW 8 MPH Temp: 6° F

Weather

Temperatures are well below normal for this time of year, and it is a chilly 6° F under clear skies in Gold Basin this morning. Ridge top winds have been well behaved and blew out of the west-northwest in the moderate range for just a few hours. Today winds will shift to the southwest and blow 5-10 MPH, temperatures will climb back to the upper 20s° F, and we will see increasing cloud cover. The next storm moves in after midnight. The heaviest period of precipitation will be tomorrow morning, and we could pick up another 4-8" of snow. Winds will be out of the south at 10 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH. Orographic showers continue on Friday and Saturday and sunny skies and normal temperatures return on Sunday.

General Conditions

The skiing and riding has greatly improved with five inches of snow falling yesterday. I found really fun "dust on crust" conditions on west facing slopes. Things were a bit softer on northerly aspects above treeline, but you can still feel the bottom. Either way today should be a beautiful winter-like day in the mountains with new snow and good visibility this morning. Shallow soft slabs of wind-drifted snow exist above treeline on slopes that face north through east. If you are getting into the alpine today, look for and avoid fresh deposits of wind-drifted snow. Cold dry snow and poor snowpack structure remain on northerly aspects near and above treeline. After recent warm temperatures and a solid refreeze, a very hard slab exists above the weak facets. For the most part, this dense slab will bridge the weight of a human. Snowpack depths vary greatly and shallow areas remain suspect. While the chances are decreasing, it remains possible for skiers to trigger a deep hard slab avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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