Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A large glide avalanche erased dozens of tracks on Repeat Offender two days ago on Seattle Ridge. Avoid traveling underneath glide cracks because these avalanches are unpredictable and destructive. There is also a chance a person could trigger a large avalanche up to 2' deep on a layer of weak snow buried in the snowpack above 2,000'. Easterly winds are forecast to pick up today in the upper elevations building fresh pillows of snow 1 to 2' deep that could be triggered by a person. Safer conditions can be found in areas protected from the wind and on lower angle slopes.

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Thank you for all of the great observations that have been submitted, keep them coming!

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches:  The most notable recent avalanche occurred two days ago on Repeat Offender on Seattle Ridge. This large glide avalanche occurred in the afternoon and erased dozens of tracks and a portion of the uptrack. There have been several other new glide avalanches in the Turnagain Pass area since the last storm ended on Friday last week. These occurred on Seattle Ridge, Sunburst, Eddies, and Twin Peaks, all aspects have been involved. There were a few large avalanches that likely occurred last Friday during the storm that include the east side of Seattle Ridge and the north side of Tincan.

    Unfortunately, the glide cycle is not showing signs of slowing. We've noticed more than 10 new glide avalanches since the last storm ended last Friday. The most recent on Repeat Offender did not have an obvious crack before it released, which is the scary thing about this problem. The avalanches are very large, they are unpredictable, and sometimes not even the classic sign of a brown frown is present. Hopefully this cycle will come to an end or at least slow. Until then, route plan to avoid them completely and if that isn't possible, spend as little time as you can passing underneath. 

    (11/24/2025)

    Midslope glide avalanche from 11/24 on Repeat Offender, Seattle Ridge. We did not observe this crack on the way up at around 1100.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    There are several layers of surface hoar buried in the snowpack across zones and this type of weak layer is tricky and more difficult to assess.

    What we know: Two avalanches were triggered remotely (from a distance away) on Tenderfoot in Summit Lake on one of these layers, but as far as we know, there have been no avalanches that have failed on these layers in Turnagain Pass yet. People are finding the weak snow on all aspects between 2,000' and 4,100' so it exists in many places ususally about 2' below the surface right now. Tests in Turnagain Pass and Girdwood are showing a mix of stable and unstable results.  If triggered, an avalanche would be large enough to bury a person so the consequences could be terrible.

    What we don't know: We don't have information from the further reaches of Seattle Ridge where snowmachines could easily access today. Surface hoar can be an untrustworthy layer, so even with mostly stable test results there's a chance a person could trigger an avalanche, but we don't know where those trigger spots are located and there may not be any warning signs. 

    What can we do about it: We can completely avoid this problem by sticking to slopes below 30 degrees with nothing steeper above. If steeper terrain is in the plan, a terrain progression including starting with smaller slopes with lower slope angles is a good way to approach a suspect snowpack. With the depth of these layers a snow pit is going to be the best assessment tool, but the snowpack is highly variable so a stable result in one area doesn't mean the next slope in either direction is good to go (or even the slope with the stable result). Safe travel protocols will help if we get surprised, which include one rider on steep slopes at a time, choosing good safe spots, and watching our partners closely. Ensure the group does a good safety check of all equipment (transceiver, airbag, radios, satellite communications) before leaving the parking lot.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Easterly winds are just starting to pick up this morning at a nearby station to Sunburst (stopped working on the 24th). The forecast speed is 20 to 30 mph today, which isn't terribly strong, but should build some wind slabs on the softer side. Watch for blowing snow to avoid places where it is piling up into a slab. The bigger concern with a wind slab today is that if one is triggered by a person it could step down to a deeper weak layer (surface hoar described in problem 2) and create a bigger and more dangerous avalanche. Other signs we may have found a wind slab include firm snow over soft snow and a crack that shoots out from you (different than just some minor cracking around your machine or feet).

Regions covered