Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Loose, point-release avalanches pose a small threat on both sides of the compass: they'll be dry sluffs on wind-sheltered, shady terrain and a wetter, heavier flavor on the sunny side once the day warms up.  Use sluff management techniques or move to less consequential terrain if the snow is sluffing under your skis or machine.  A small chance remains for a triggered slab avalanche where you encounter stiff, previously drifted snow on leeward features at upper elevations; you can reduce your risk by steering away from old, hard drifts (like this avalanche in the Sawatch yesterday). 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The prolonged dry spell is causing the snowpack to lose cohesion on wind-protected northerly aspects, allowing sluffs to entrain more volume than you might expect.  You are most likely to encounter gouging sluffs in terrain where the snowpack is shallowest and weakest: at low elevations or on slopes that have avalanched earlier this month.  Although most of these dry loose avalanches will be relatively small and slow-moving, they can gather size and speed in sustained steep terrain.  Use sluff management techniques in steep terrain above trees, rock bands, and gullies where your skis are sinking deeply into weak, cohesionless snow.  You can avoid the problem on slope angles less than 35 degrees.  

    Earlier this week, a skier hit a rock, lost a ski, and got carried by their sluff on Mt. Emmons.  This harmless situation could be more serious if you get pushed into a tree or a gulley.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Warm temperatures and sunshine will increase concerns for shallow wet avalanches.  Wet Loose avalanches can be triggered or release naturally if you find more than a few inches of wet, cohesionless snow, or where loose, dry snow becomes damp for the first time.  Very steep, rocky terrain is most susceptible to natural releases.  Head to cooler aspects, less consequential terrain, or lower slope angles to manage the problem. 

    Though unlikely, a wet loose avalanche that runs over a previously wind-loaded slope could trigger a larger or broader slab avalanche.  

    (2/2/2026)

    A human-triggered Wet Loose avalanche on the south side of Mount Owen from last weekend.  Expect similar issues today.

    Photo: Tom Schaefer

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Previously drifted slabs remain an isolated concern where they formed over buried facet layers.  Most slabs are typically 1 to 3 feet, and are difficult to trigger after weeks of dry weather.   Searching for wind-eroded and soft wind-dappled snow will help reduce your exposure to this avalanche problem, while the best way to avoid it is by riding in wind-sheltered terrain or lower slope angles.   

    An example of some hard wind-drifted slabs on the eastern side of Cinammon Mountain. 

Avalanche Discussion

Mountain temperatures reached into the 40s yesterday, our warmest day of 2026.  A handful of small (D1-D1.5) wet loose avalanches ran naturally as a result of the snow surfaces getting wet on the sunny half of the compass.  Expect similar potential for human-triggered or natural activity today unless cloud cover develops sooner than expected.  

Soft, "recycled powder" can still be found on the shady side of the compass in wind-protected areas.  Stay alert for sluffing in consequential terrain.  Even though dry loose avalanches are the smallest and easiest-to-manage on the avalanche spectrum, facet sluffs tend to catch people off guard for a number of reasons.  First, they start off quite slow and small, such that you probably won't even notice you triggered one.  Several turns later, you might ride underneath your sluff just as it's picking up enough volume and speed to catch you and push you around.  Secondly, sluffs are most commonly found where the snowpack is shallow and unsupportive (the bullseye: below treeline close to town), and that's also where you're most likely to get tripped up by "early season" obstacles.  That was the case of a skier who got carried by a sluff on Wednesday after hitting a rock.  

Triggering a slab avalanche has become unlikely across the forecast area, but not impossible.  The latest round of slabs formed almost two weeks ago during our last storm and northwest wind event.  A few collapses have been reported in the past week, and our last triggered persistent slabs occurred at the end of January.   It is worth noting that persistent slabs were triggered yesterday and Tuesday in the Sawatch Range east of Crested Butte's forecast zones.  These were on obviously wind-loaded slopes facing east and southeast.  The Sawatch Range saw a similar storm and windloading event two weeks ago, and a similar dry weather pattern since.  

Regions covered