Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate above 3000 feet and low below.  Lingering wind slabs instabilities may still exist in steep terrain.  Human triggered avalanches remain possible to trigger 1-2 feet in depth in specific areas.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday.  The next avalanche forecast will be issued 1/3.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs continue to gain strength.  Instabilities will now be confined to just below high elevation ridges and small isolated pockets in steep terrain.  Users have been moving into steeper terrain with good stability observed and reported.   The exception to this may be in the Continental zone where facets could underlie wind slabs in places and the process of stabilizing takes longer.  

    Winds are switching to southerly today but look to be mild.  If you experience fresh wind slab formation expect the hazard to be higher.  Although this outcome looks unlikely.  Light snowfall is possible today, but is not expected to affect stability.

      In places where the surface snow is unaffected by wind the hazard is low.

    Watch for the presence of wind slabs in the area you choose to travel.  Hard snow over soft is an indicator that wind slabs exist and signs of instability such as collapsing or shooting cracks are an indicator that they are unstable.  As wind slabs stiffen and gain strength hand pits become a less effective tool for assesing stability.  Use test slopes to assess their sensitivity were appropriate (slopes without consequences).  

    Small Skier triggered wind slab that was reported 12/28. SW aspect ~4000', South Tiekel

Avalanche Discussion

The main concern today will be the possibilty of triggering a wind slab avalanche below high elevation ridgelines or in isolated small pockets of steep terrain.  In many locations wind slabs have become unreactive to triggers, although some areas may remain sensitive.  It is expected that the Continental zone will hold onto this instability longer than areas to the south due to the possibility of facets underlying slabs.

It has been 6 days since our last major snowfall.  Areas that are unaffected by recent wind will have a low hazard rating as good bonding and stability have been observed and reported at the latest interface and overall.

Our attention now needs to shift to the upcoming pattern change.  The last week of clear and cold weather has caused snow at the surface to lose strength (facet).  It is possible that this will create a weak interface for the next round of snowfall.  A significant warmup prior to heavy precipitation may ease this effect, although the next round of snow should be treated as guilty until proven innocent.  Only time will tell!!!  Happy New Year!!

Valdez season snowfall: 144 inches

Valdez December snowfall: 108 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 53 inches

Thompson Pass snowfall data is currently unavalable

46 mile height of snowpack: 68 inches

Regions covered