Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Stable avalanche conditions will remain today. Remember that low danger does not mean no danger. Buried weak layers still exist. Slopes where a slight possibility to trigger an avalanche will be upper elevation terrain that is very steep, shallow, and shaded. Watch for loose snow sloughing and small, soft slabs if you see more new snow than forecasted. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The likelihood of triggering an avalanche on weak layers buried 1-3 feet below hard slabs has decreased significantly during this extended period of dry weather. These weak layers formed in November have adjusted to the current load, but stability tests are still showing unstable results and propagation. There is still the slightest concern on isolated terrain features that harbor certain characteristics. These characteristics include slopes that are very steep and shaded as well as wind affected (scoured and loaded) terrain where shallow, thin areas could be more sensitive to triggering an avalanche.

    2-4 inches of new snow is forecasted today. This new snow will fall on a variety of poor interfaces. Watch for any loose sloughing and small, soft slabs if new snow amounts exceed forecasted totals where you are traveling.

Avalanche Discussion

Historically dry weather has occurred for both the months of November and December. As a result, our snowpack contains poor snowpack structure and two distinguished weak layers that are critical to pay attention to for backcountry travelers. The November drought layer has adjusted to the current load. The possibility of triggering an avalanche has decreased enough (despite unstable snowpit stability tests) to issue low avalanche danger. This does not mean you cannot trigger an avalanche. The possibility still exists in upper elevation terrain with obvious wind scour and deposition near the critical slope angle of 40° where the snowpack appears weak and shallow. Continue to maintain safe protocols while traveling in avalanche terrain such as exposing only one person at a time, keeping an eye on your partners, and wearing the proper working gear (beacon, probe, and shovel). The second weak layer is right on the surface and will become a concern once a slab forms above it. Forecasted snowfall of 2-4 inches today will not create unstable conditions. Pay attention if you see snowfall above these forecasted totals and acknowledge you could experience new snow instability. 

Enjoy the primarily stable conditions today and make sure to check the forecast this upcoming week as a series of storms impact the area. This will drastically change avalanche conditions as that buried November layer becomes stressed with a new load. Additionally, new snow will fall on a variety of poor interfaces including stout crusts and thick facet (weak, sugary snow) layers creating unstable conditions. 

Regions covered