Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Continued warming will maintain dangerous avalanche conditions. Wet avalanches that fail on deeply buried weak layers and break widely across terrain may be easy to trigger and may also run naturally. Make sure to choose conservative routes on low-angle terrain and avoid overhead exposure to large open slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Avoid traveling on or near large, steep terrain features. Give yourself large margins of safety from potential runout zones. Wet slab avalanches can run further and break wider than you may expect. A good strategy is patience and conservative terrain selection. If you experience whumphing collapses, use extra caution to avoid steep terrain. However, you may not get warning signs before triggering an avalanche. The snowpack is resting on a weak foundation. There were multiple wet avalanches throughout the zone on Sunday, and temperatures will continue to warm. A skier was caught and carried in a very large avalanche at Mission Ridge on Sunday (more information below) that ran below the Solstice Crust on depth hoar near the ground. Professionals around Holden observed two very large wet avalanches that ran naturally, and a skier triggered an avalanche on the Solstice Crust at nearby Stevens Pass. We are peeling back layers of weak snow as we continue to warm this weak snowpack. Continued warming will maintain the notoriously unpredictable nature of these Wet slab avalanches. They can still fail unexpectedly even after rainfall has ended. Smaller wet loose avalanches or cornice falls can also trigger these very large and destructive avalanches.

    (1/24/2024)

    Very large hard slab triggered with explosives at Mission Ridge.

    Photo: Mission Ridge Ski Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

Rain will taper off, but snow levels will soar to over 10,000ft by Monday afternoon. Natural and skier-triggered, very large avalanches (D2.5-3) were reported throughout the zone and in neighboring zones on Sunday. Faceted snow over the Solstice Crust was the persistent weak layer involved in multiple skier-triggered avalanches earlier in January, and activity on this layer only increased as temperatures warmed. When it began to rain, reports of very large avalanches running on deeply buried weak layers came in from nearly every zone in our forecast area. The eastern mountains have been slower to warm and started with a weaker overall snowpack. This set up our snowpack for a prolonged period of instability. An avalanche failing on depth hoar and running on the ground at Mission Ridge indicates that we still have weak snow capable of producing very large avalanches, even after multiple days of warm temperatures and rain. As natural avalanche activity tapers off, you could still trigger one of these nasty avalanches. With scary, hard-to-predict avalanches, the take-home point is that until the snowpack experiences below-freezing temperatures, the potential for very large wet slabs remains. Consider the consequences of overhead hazard or triggering one of these deadly avalanches when choosing terrain. 

Even the lowlands in the eastern foothills could see wet loose or small wet slab avalanches as rain and warm temperatures continue. 

Statement from Mission Ridge Ski Patrol regarding the inbounds avalanche on Sunday: At approximately 12:09 p.m., an avalanche occurred on the run Nertz within the ski area boundary. The area of the avalanche is accessed via the Wenatchee Express chairlift, which is also referred to as Chair 2. Three guests were in the area of the slide, but none were buried. No other guests or staff are believed to have been on the run at the time. A thorough search of the area has been conducted out of an abundance of caution, including utilizing Recco devices and an avalanche rescue dog from Stevens Pass. At this time, there have not been any reports of missing skiers, and the skiers involved in the slide did not see any other skiers in the vicinity. 

If you get out, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

Regions covered