Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Thin coverage will increase the consequences of any avalanche involvement today. Be suspect of steep slopes susceptible to recent wind loading. Keep in mind that our weak and complex snowpack may act in surprising ways. Choosing travel routes with lower slope angles and no overhead hazard will limit your exposure.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds continue out of the North. While loose surface snow will continue to deposit onto solar aspects, it may still be possible to trigger a larger and more destructive windslab avalanche on NW-N-E aspects. Shifting winds following our recent loading event mean that surface clues may be an unreliable indicator of distribution today. Do your own localized assessments and be suspect of terrain features that encourage drifting, such as the leeward sides of ridgelines, alpine couloirs, gully features, and cross-loaded depressions. Weak and faceted grains exist throughout the old snow. Keep in mind that even a relatively small avalanche breaking in the upper snowpack has the potential to step down into older snow, creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.

    (1/7/2024)

    Cracking in wind-drifted snow. West aspect near treeline in the Mammoth area.

    Photo: Clancy Nelson

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Weak faceted grains within the old snow continue to show the potential for persistent slab activity. Incremental loading of new snow has not yet been enough to initiate a widespread avalanche cycle. However, we have seen large recent avalanches, both natural and explosive-triggered, fail on buried weak layers. Renewed signs of instability, such as shooting cracks and collapsing in the snowpack, also indicate the potential for a large and destructive avalanche. If triggered, a resulting avalanche could break with little warning, involving the full depth of the snowpack. Managing this problem may be more challenging because poor snow coverage means that the few areas attractive for riding are generally the same slopes where the avalanche problem may exist. Careful route selection and evaluation remain important strategies to manage this problem. When in doubt, choose travel routes with lower slope angles and no overhead hazards to limit your exposure.

    Large natural avalanche on White Wing. It likely failed within the old snow.

    Photo: Steve Mace

Avalanche Discussion

While today's focus remains on the potential for wind slab activity, our most recent loading event renewed signs of instability involving weak layers deeper in the snowpack. Recent avalanche activity, collapsing in the snowpack, and shooting cracks are all type one data that point toward an unstable snowpack.

Patience remains the key ingredient. While the next couple of days of dry and cold weather are not expected to raise the hazard, current models suggest we are likely in for continued incremental loading in the near future. This could have the effect of slowly loading our house of cards until we reach critical mass.

Regions covered