Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Near and above treeline is where you can stiffer cohesive slabs on the surface that rest on top of faceted weak layers closer to the ground. Avoid steep slopes, where you find supportable, stiff slabs on the surface, as there's a good chance these slabs sit on top of weak faceted snow.  Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or loud audible collapses may or may not be present, so take the time to dig a quick pit to assess if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists. Any avalanche triggered could break widely across the slope and terrain features, taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Near and above treeline is where it's possible to find the right slab/weak layer combination to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on facets or depth on or near the ground.  As we push further away from the last loading event, triggering an avalanche has become more stubborn but not impossible. Take the time to dig a quick pit before committing to a slope to see if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists.  Any avalanche triggered could be large enough to injure or bury you, and most likely will take with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Avalanche Discussion

As we say goodbye to 2023, conditions aren't all that inviting for good skiing and riding.  Cold temperatures and still relatively shallow snowpack ( 2 to 3 feet) below and near treeline, have seen the snowpack weaken and in some cases become fully faceted from top to bottom. At these lower elevations, we don't have a slab and avalanche concerns are mainly limited to just loose snow sluffs, which in steep terrain could push you around, but will be relatively harmless. The bigger concern comes from hitting rocks, stumps and downed trees.  At upper elevations strong winds from earlier in the week have drifted and pressed snow into stiffer slabs on the surface. Northerly and east aspects at these upper elevations have the deepest snowpacks and the most enticing terrain to ski or ride.  These slopes are also where you're more likely to find a poor snowpack structure of strong over weak snow. It's becoming more stubborn to trigger an avalanche but may just take finding the right trigger point or slab/weak layer combination to release an avalanche that breaks on or near the ground.   

 

We should see chances of snow picking up Thursday night into Friday, with another system moving in a couple of days after that.  Both systems are still a long way out, so we should get better clarity on the details the closer we get to these systems. Although avalanche conditions are easing in the short term, our weak-faceted shallow snowpack will become problematic once we do see more snow and significant loading. 

Regions covered