Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Particularly in areas closer to the Cascade Crest, Wednesday is a good day to make conservative terrain choices and look for signs of unstable snow on all aspects and elevations. Clear signs of instability include recent slab avalanches, long shooting cracks from your equipment, and collapsing.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong southwest wind will accompany snowfall Tuesday night. There will be a lull for a few hours in the morning before picking back up, and the wind will shift more southerly. Expect considerably more snow to fall in areas near the Cascade Crest. This forecast reflects the higher hazard for these areas.

    Anticipate unstable slabs of wind drifted snow first thing in the morning, and continued development throughout the day. You should always look for signs of wind drifted snow on all aspects, but keep this in mind especially with the wind direction shift. Slabs will be deeper on north and east aspects. Look for obvious clues of loading, such as blowing snow, sharp drifts, and textured snow surfaces. Wind slabs typically form just below ridgelines or along gully walls (cross loading). Wednesday is a good day to steer around steep, exposed slopes.

    A recent intentionally skier-triggered wind slab on Monday in the East North zone (1/5/2026).SS-AS-R2-D1.5-S

    Photo: Adam Butterfield

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As the snow continues to stack up, consider the chance that it is settling into a cohesive slab that is unstable in both sheltered and exposed terrain. In some lower elevation areas, new snow may be falling on slick crusts. Storm slab instability should be relegated to areas near the Cascade Crest that receive higher snow totals, and peak instability should be in the morning. Steer around steep slopes where you experience the same red flags you'd see in a wind slab problem: cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches.

    If it is not settling, keep an eye out for sluffs of loose dry snow. Even a small avalanche could knock you off your feet and carry you into exposed hazards.

    (12/18/2025)

    Uptrack tests like this can help evaluate the new storm snow. Here the snow cracked out in front of my skis. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

The last piece of on the ground snowpack information we have for the East South zone is from December 28th. A lot of weather has happened since then. Furthermore, weather stations have been a bit finicky, and there is conflicting telemetry vs on the ground information from other zones. All of this uncertainty, coupled with a very active storm system impacting the region, should drive you to back off aggressive terrain on Wednesday. Storm snow avalanche hazard is almost always at its highest during or immediately after a storm.

Based on observations from other zones, there is probably a crust in the upper snowpack that formed on 01/02. It is refrozen and supportable above 5000 ft, and less so below. Minimal signs of instability associated with it have been observed. Then, a thick slab below sits over the hefty atmospheric river crusts now buried deeply. There is a significant difference in overall snowpack depths between lower and upper elevations, as well as areas close to the Cascade Crest versus further east.

Open creeks, downed logs, and other hazards have continued to be an obstacle at lower elevations. They may be obscured by new snow, so take your time as you move around the backcountry. In choosing terrain to ride, consider the consequence of a slide- if one happens, where will it take you? Look for slopes with a clean run-out free of bone-breaking trees, creeks, and rocks. 

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