The avalanche danger is LOW this morning, but increasing winds blowing from the southwest might up the ante later today. Heightened avalanche conditions and MODERATE danger may develop in drifted upper-elevation terrain where people could trigger shallow hard slab avalanches of wind-drifted snow on slopes steeper than 30°. Periods of heavy snow and drifting by southwest winds will elevate the danger tonight and tomorrow. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, especially on high drifted slopes.
Increasing winds from the southwest will find some snow to drift into leeward avalanche-starting zones today. Shallow hard wind slabs could form on slopes plagued by sugary faceted snow. Harder wind slabs can be stubborn to trigger, and they have a nasty tendency to let people get well out on them before releasing like a big mouse trap.
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road to the winter trailhead is plowed and mostly dirt and mud with areas of packed snow that soften up in the afternoon.
Grooming: Trails were groomed a few days ago by LUNA.
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Sunday, we observed a small natural wind slab avalanche around 11,800' on a west-facing slope. No other avalanches were reported.
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 146" Depth at Gold Basin 52"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 15-20 mph gusting 37 mph Temp 18° F Percent of Normal: 93%
Weather
Today will be partly sunny, but cloud cover and winds from the southwest will increase throughout the day. High temperatures at 11,000 ft should climb to around 37° F. It'll be breezy with winds blowing from the west-southwest increasing to 20 to 25 mph.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the La Sal and Abajo Mountains, beginning this evening and extending through Wednesday night. The forecast calls for 7 to 13 inches of accumulation tonight and tomorrow, with wind veering from the northwest and a high temperature of 26° F at 11,000 ft tomorrow.
Snow showers are in the forecast through the remainder of the workweek and Saturday, with a return to sunny conditions on Sunday.
General Conditions
Snow surface conditions are a bit variable, but we found shallow, soft snow in shady, sheltered terrain (and crusted or damp snow in sunny terrain) on Sunday.
A persistent weak layer of old snow from Dec/Nov has become dormant as the last avalanches on this layer were about a month ago.
On Friday, Mark found weak, near-surface facets on a northerly-facing slope capped by the recent snowfall. Sunday, we found giant depth hoar (large faceted grains) on a west-facing slope where the snow was shallow. But we also found really hard, stable snow on a north-facing slope where the snow was deeper, around 8 feet.
The snow is rotten where it is shallow, consisting of loose, large-grained faceted snow or depth hoar.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
