Avalanche forecast

Bitterroot

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a wind slab at upper elevation will be possible today on all aspects. Watch for red flags like shooting cracks or recent avalanches. If you encounter these, stick to slopes under 35 degrees.

Upper elevation north aspects still have lingering weak snow surrounding buried crusts. Although unlikely, any avalanche triggered on these layers could be large and destructive.

Wet slab danger has decreased today, but isolated areas holding wet snow in the middle of the snowpack are capable of producing wet slab avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Overnight, most areas received 5-6 inches of new snow, with the exception of the Seeley zone, which received less snow. Wind speeds were light overnight but shifted around the compass, with periods of wind in the northwest, southwest, and east-southeast. Today, another 1-4 inches of snow is expected with west winds.  D1 wind slabs are likely today, and D2 wind slabs are possible.

    Expect wind slabs to be most prevalent on east aspects, but with the shifting winds, all aspects are included because of the potential for cross-loading and terrain-driven winds. Wind slab size will be dependent on how much new snow is in the area, and if you find 6 inches of new snow, be on the lookout for slabs up to a foot in depth.

    Wind slabs can often be identified by their smooth, rounded appearance. If you encounter firm snow that feels hollow underneath or see shooting cracks around your skis or snowmobile, step out of avalanche terrain and stick to slopes under 35 degrees.  Keep in mind that new snow could hide previous wind slabs, making red flags like cracking harder to identify.

    (3/1/2024)

    Previous evidence of wind transport along a ridgeline. If you see this, expect wind slab formation.

    Photo: Arden Feldman

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Persistent slab avalanches remain unlikely, but high consequence if triggered. The primary layer of concern is weak snow surrounding a crust in the middle of the snowpack. This problem has been unreactive and not producing avalanches, except for one avalanche in the southern Bitterroot that resulted in a fatality.

    You will not see red flags like cracking, collapsing or whumfing before triggering an avalanche. Slopes with previous ski tracks are still suspect, and it is possible that the second or third skier on the slope could trigger the avalanche. The only way to identify this problem is to dig in the snowpack. If you find a crust with a thin (1cm - 3 inches thick) layer of weaker snow above or below it and a slab above, recognize the potential for a larger avalanche. If you want to avoid the issue completely, avalanches are unlikely on slopes under 30 degrees in slope angle.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Continued cooler temperatures have helped alleviate wet slab concerns today, but especially at mid elevation, there are areas with wet snow still in the snowpack. Even if you are on top of a supportable crust, the snow under the crust can still be wet and have low strength.  This week, a skier had a close call with a wet slab avalanche on Lolo Pass. Wet slab avalanches are difficult to forecast or manage and have an inherent uncertainty surrounding them.

    The best way to identify the problem is to dig. You don't need a full snowpit profile for this problem. Simply dig down or reach with your hand in the snowpack and look for wet snow. If you find wet snow, even if it is below a supportable crust, recognize the potential for a wet slab avalanche and move to slopes under 30 degrees in slope angle. 

    Be alert to changing conditions as you make your way down a slope or wrap around aspects in a bowl or cirque, as the snow can become wetter in more solar-affected areas. 

    (3/25/2024)

    Close call with a wet slab in the Lolo Pass area.

Avalanche Discussion

Be ready for changing conditions today. Spring storms become harder to forecast for a variety of reasons, and it is possible for snow totals to exceed forecasted numbers. As the front passes this afternoon, we can expect a period of unstable atmospheric conditions, graupel, and maybe even some lightning. Remember, avalanches are just one of the hazards of mountain travel. Lightning or fire-weakened trees falling in a wind event are not things to mess with. Looking forward, we can expect a few days of unsettled weather with snow flurries before a larger ridge of high builds next week, decreasing the likelihood of more snow.   Please continue to submit observations even as the season comes to an end. The information helps us finish our forecasting season and produce a general avalanche advisory for the spring.   Unfortunately, the time has come for the avalanche center to begin wrapping up operations for the 23/24 season. Thank you for another great season! Our last forecast of the season will be issued on March 31st, 2024. On April 1st, we will issue a General Avalanche Information product with general spring backcountry travel advice.    Unlike our Forest Service neighbors, we are a nonprofit avalanche center, and we do not have the resources to continue producing avalanche forecasts later in the spring. Please consider donating if you value our work and would like to see us grow and improve our products in the future. We’re already looking forward to next season - let’s hope it’s snowier than this one! 

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