Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Considerable at all elevations.  Heavy snowfall yesterday has created unstable snow that will be likely for a person or machine to trigger 1-3+ feet in depth.  Natural avalanches are possible today.

Avalanche forecasts are produced Wednesday-Sunday.  The next avalanche forecast will be issued on 3/20.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Significant snowfall yesterday has elevated the avalanche hazard.  Human triggered avalanches 1-3 feet in depth are likely today.  Storm slab avalanches may be able to step down to a layer of buried surface in hoar in some locations and create very large avalanches (see problem 2).  Wind loaded slopes will be the most likely areas to trigger an avalanche, although all slopes steeper than 30° should be considered suspect.  Conservative terrain choices are recommended today.

    23" of new snowfall has been reported on Thompson Pass over the last 24 hours.  Winds during the storm were light to moderate beginning out of the north and eventually swinging around to the south.  Changing wind directions will have loaded multiple aspects.  Temperatures did not warm as significantly as forecasted although a slow increase in temperatures during the storm created slightly top heavy storm slabs, especially at low elevations.  This was observed yesterday as shooting cracks and collapsing were present at low elevations where temps were warmer, and went away with a gain of elevation and a decrease in temperature.  Temperatures are expected to slowly increase today creating unstable conditions at the surface.  

    Allow the snowpack time to accept the weight of the new snowfall.  Stability is expected to slowly increase in most locations in a couple days once skies clear and precipitation stops.  In the meantime, dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  The caveat to this is where a layer of surface hoar exists that is now buried under 2-3 feet of snow (see problem 2),   dangerous avalanche conditions are expected to persist longer than storm snow instabilities.

     

     

     

    18" of new snow at 3000 feet near milepost 46.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Persistent Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    A layer of surface hoar that was buried on 3/9 has been identified in the Intermountain and Continental zones on the northerly half of the compass above 3000'.  Prior to the most recent storm this layer was reactive to skiers and produced multiple D1 avalanches.  These D1 avalanches will now be D2's or even 3's as the mass above the weak layer has significantly increased.  This weak layer is just above the very hard wind damaged snow created in late February.  This wind damaged snow will act as an effective bed surface and may allow avalanches that are initiated to have very wide propagations.  

    Moving forward the presence of this layer will be very important in determining stability.  This setup is dangerous as not only does it have the potential to produce dangerous avalanches but identifying this layer can be challenging even for experienced users.  Surface hoar is notorious for being spotty in its distribution meaning that good stability can be observed in one location and an adjacent slope may have unstable conditions.  As stated above this layer has been identified north of Thompson Pass on protected northerly slopes.  Snow pits are a good tool to tell you where not to ski or travel.  Don't assume that negative results in a stability test mean a slope is safe.

    3/9 Buried Surface Hoar. Found on Billy Mitchell 3/14 at 4000'

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Heavy snowfall yesterday has created elevated avalanche hazard on all slopes steeper than 30°.  Human triggered avalanches are likely today.

Stability will slowly be increasing by mid week in all areas except where buried surface hoar exists. Where this layer exists Considerable hazard will remain.  This layer has been identified north of Thompson Pass above 3000' on northerly aspects, however may exist in other locations as well.  This is a layer of concern that has the potential to produce deadly avalanches long after the most recent storm snow settles.  We currently have all of the ingredients necessary for an avalanche.  Bed surface created by high winds in late February.  Weak layer of surface hoar formed on 3/7 and buried on 3/9.  Then finally and most importantly, a big fat storm slab that is now 3+ feet deep in some locations.  This layer is now deep enough that signs of instability may not be present even though dangerous avalanche conditions exist.

Below the 3/9 BSH layer is a very strong bed surface created by hurricane force winds at the end of February.  In some areas this bed surface is very smooth (low friction) and could promote wide propagations.  The strength of this layer will make it unlikely for avalanches to occur beneath this wind affected snow for the time being.  

Wet loose avalanches will be possible in steep low elevation terrain near the coast if snow turns to rain today.

Glide cracks exist in isolated areas and will be a hazard throughout the season until they fail.  Avoid exposure to glide cracks.

Valdez season snowfall: 271  inches

Valdez March snowfall: 23 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 74 inches

Thompson Pass season snowfall: 596 inches as of 3/1

46 mile height of snowpack: 88 inches

 

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