Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow are possible on steep slopes facing W-N-E-SE. Look for slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub-ridges, and rocky outcrops. Human triggered avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer remain possible on slopes facing W-N-E-SE. The danger is most pronounced on steep, northerly aspects. This is a low probability/high consequence scenario. You can minimize your risk by avoiding steep, rocky areas and slopes with complex terrain features.

A mostly LOW danger exists on S-SW aspects. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    In spite of the lack of loose snow available for transport, nuking winds have been able to strip snow from exposed windward slopes, and deposit it into shallow slabs on leeward aspects. Look for slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub ridges, or rocky outcroppings. They may also be further down slope than you expect. In most cases, they won't be enough to bury you, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff, into some trees, or at the very least, twist your knee. In a worst case scenario, a triggered wind slab could result in an avalanche failing on buried weak layers of faceted snow deep in the snowpack. This scenario is most likely in areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain with a more northerly aspect.

    Blocks of snow such as this indicate the presence of wind slab. PC Sam Van Wetter

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    The likelihood of triggering an avalanche on a deeply buried PWL continues to decrease, but it is still possible. We are now in a low likelihood, high consequence scenario. If you are stepping out into avalanche terrain, evaluate each slope on an individual basis. Aim to ride in areas with a deeper snowpack. Avoid steep, rocky terrain, thinner areas along slope margins, and steep, blind rollovers or convexities. These are all likely trigger points.

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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is passable to most vehicles over a snowpacked and slick surface. AWD with good tires recommended.

Grooming: LUNA groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass yesterday and set classic track.

Snow and Weather

6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 3" Season Total Snow 135" Depth at Gold Basin 48"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SSE 30-40 G50 Temp 27° Percent of Normal: 96%

Weather

Southerly winds are officially cranking and have been blowing in the 30-40 mph range since about 9:00 p.m. last night. They'll continue to blast today as a powerful storm system moves into the region. Look for increasing clouds today, nuking winds, and high temps in the upper 30's. Light snow may develop this afternoon but any chance for measurable snowfall will occur tonight. Unfortunately for us, the bulk of this system is passing by to the north, and with these winds, I fear a blowout. 3"-5" seem likely by tomorrow.

General Conditions

In the words of pro observer Sam Van Wetter, "it was pretty gnarly out there" yesterday. He reported finding mostly wind affected surfaces including sastrugi, scoured to the rocks southerly aspects, as well as a liberal distribution of shallow wind slabs. Read his observation here. There isn't much loose snow available for transport, but with the souring effect of these powerful winds, fresh slabs of wind drifted snow will likely continue to form today. They'll become deeper and more widespread by tomorrow if we get a some snow. Look for blocks of snow breaking between your skis, and suspect smooth, rounded deposits that sound or feel hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability. There remains a low likelihood, high consequence risk for triggering a deep avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow near the ground. Keep the odds in your favor by avoiding steep, rocky, complex terrain.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.

Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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