Generally safe avalanche conditions continue to prevail today. However, be wary of unstable snow on steep and extremely steep north facing terrain, especially snow adjacent to or attached to rocky terrain. Otherwise, normal caution is advised.
Temperatures are forecasted to rise above freezing today so I continue to advise recreationalists to exercise normal caution when moving through and below corniced terrain. Stay well back from slope edges when traveling along ridgelines keeping in mind that cornices tend to break further back from the slope edge than you might expect.
Today could be the last day we see low avalanche danger in the avalanche advisory for awhile. Tonight into tomorrow we are forecasted to receive 2"-4" of snow accompanied by southwest,south,and west winds. This adds up to windslab formation on top of a weak upper snowpack and compromised existing snow surface. This abrupt change in weather could spawn our first avalanche cycle of the season. In general, the snowpack doesn't like abrupt change, and it is about to encounter abrupt change if the current weather forecast materializes. Persistent grain types and crusts at the snow surface will create a poor bond of new snow to old snow. In other words, we have a great sliding surface for new snow to slide on. Also, weak snow structure exists in the upper 12" of the snowpack at many locations. Snowpit data taken from the Lakes Lookout (Northern Elkhorns)area yesterday strongly points to a poor bond 8" down from the snow surface at the January 6 raincrust. Both of my extended column tests failed and fully propagated at this interface. Fellow WAC forecaster Kelly McNeil observed similar results in pit data she gathered near Flagstaff Butte in the Southern Wallowas. Her columns failed in a weak faceted layer that rests on top of the same 1/6 raincrust (CT23⬇️27cm SC). The potential exists for avalanches to step down into these weaker layers entraining a larger volume of snow thereby making bigger and more dangerous avalanches. As we move into the new week proceed with caution by avoiding freshly loaded slopes steeper than 30 degrees and stay tuned...
