Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Utah Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation slopes facing northwest through north and east and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on these slopes. Mid elevation slopes facing northwest/north/east have a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Avalanches may break down 2-4' deep (possibly deeper) and hundreds of feet wide. All other slopes have a Moderate danger.

The good news is that recent snowfall and cold temperatures have created excellent riding and travel conditions on lower-angled southerly-facing slopes. (Plus, it's going to be a lot warmer in the sun!)

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    3

    Over the past week we have added several feet of snow (with nearly 4" of water) to our snowpack. In addition, several wind events with strong winds from the west/southwest have deposited dense slabs of wind-driven snow at the mid and upper elevations. This new snow and dense wind slabs have created dangerous avalanche conditions on mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through north and east where there is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow down near the ground. Avalanches over the past few days have broken down to this weak layer, producing slides up to 4' deep and hundreds of feet wide.

    This dangerous weakness may be disguised with none of the typical signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing. But if you do trigger an avalanche where this persistent weak layer (PWL) is present - perhaps from a thinner spot on the slope or on a steeper convex rollover - the avalanche will break down 4' deep (possibly deeper) and up to hundreds of feet wide. Unsurvivable.

    We are moving in the right direction and ultimately the load of snow this past week should help settle the PWL problem, but for now your continued patience is required.

    Mike Fogg's extended column test (ECT) with full propagation illustrates this weak layer and the slab on top:

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Instabilities from the 12-16" of new snow from the New Year's Eve storm are likely to have settled out, but you may find areas with pockets of dense snow that may be reactive, especially in exposed terrain where the new snow may have been drifted by winds. Sluffing in the new snow is also possible on steeper slopes.

    What most concerns me are the northerly-facing slopes where this new snow has added stress to the deeply-buried PWL.

Additional Info

On Thursday evening, UAC forecasters from across the state gathered on Zoom to discuss the current avalanche danger and what we expect this coming weekend.

Avalanche Warning

AN AVALANCHE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...THE MANTI-SKYLINE ...THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.

THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH FOR THE WARNING AREA AND TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BEING CAUGHT IN ANY AVALANCHE IS LIKELY TO BE UNSURVIVABLE. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

Recent Activity

Control work at Ogden resorts produced avalanches running within recent storm snow as well as weak, faceted snow on upper elevation northerly aspects with crowns up to 4' deep and several hundred feet wide.

Mige Fogg submitted an excellent observation from Monte Cristo where he reported continued collapsing and cracking on the faceted snow down near the ground.

Snow and Weather

Currently: Temperatures range from -5° to +5° F but fortunately the west/northwest winds are light, averaging less than 10 mph with gusts in the teens. Despite the generally light winds, wind chills are around -25° F. Snowfall totals since Thursday night range from 12-16" (containing ~1" water) in the Ogden mountains.

Today: Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be the coldest of this winter season so far, rising only into the low single digits. Winds will be from the northwest and mercifully light to moderate, averaging around 10 mph with gusts in the teens along exposed ridgelines and summits.

Looking ahead, temperatures will warm Sunday into Monday with sunshine. A return to a progressive weather pattern is expected with additional snowfall by midweek.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures

Instagram

Facebook

Get Forecast Email

Previous Forecasts

Contact via email

Submit Observation

Regions covered