Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Dust on crust.  Avalanches are unlikely and the avalanche danger is LOW.     Any lingering chance of triggering an avalanche today is on higher elevation, northerly terrain, particularly from shallow, rocky, or unsupported slopes.  This recent natural persistent slab from the Aspen Zone highlights the issue.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

     Slab avalanches breaking into old weak layers several feet deep have become unlikely, but not impossible.  Higher elevation, northerly facing terrain still holds a dry, winterlike snowpack; thus we can't completely eliminate the potential for a rare but large slab avalanche on these aspects.  The most suspect terrain is where snow coverage is shallower,  especially on convex, unsupported slopes or near rock bands. You are most likely to trigger a slide from a shallower spot on the slope.  If you are skiing or riding in that type of terrain, reduce your group's exposure during uphill travel and choose appropriate safe zones from a large avalanche while descending.  Let your friend wrestle their stuck snowmobile off of suspect slopes by themselves.  

    Example of our most recent persistent slab avalanche that likely failed around March 30th.  This large avalanche highlights the type of terrain that remains most worrisome:  northerly, rocky, and unsupported.  

Avalanche Discussion

Colder temperatures overnight and today will put an end to wet avalanche concerns.  Snow surfaces on all but the coldest aspects will be crusty with a dusting of new snow on top.  That leaves us with one lingering concern on high, northerly facing terrain: slabs breaking on the dry spell weak layer that was buried in mid-February.   Although persistent slab avalanches have been rare across our forecast area since mid-March , there have been a few isolated events that give cause for caution.  Sometime around March 30th, a large slab released off of Oh-Be-Joyful Peak.  And just yesterday, a forecaster in Aspen spotted a fresh persistent slab near Ashcroft that may have released within the past 24 hours.  These rare slides fit the same pattern that we commonly see with lingering persistent slab issues:  unusually shallow or rocky terrain, often in unsupported or convex terrain features.  With a significant loading event on tap for next week, we can't eliminate this concern just yet, as much as we'd like to.  

Regions covered