Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Surfaces may firm up a bit overnight and keep wet avalanche activity minimal, but if snow softens several inches there's a small chance you might be able to trigger an avalanche in steep areas. Remain aware of large triggers causing an avalanche a few feet deep, failing on a weak layer on upper elevation northerly aspects, although it is unlikely that these will occur.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Uncertainty exists as to how reactive a layer of facets resting on the March 8 crust is. Josh Hirschberg and I dug down to the layer on Wednesday at 5600ft on a northest aspect and found moist, just-barely-identifiable, rounding facets. This layer is probably more obvious at higher elevation northerly aspects, where you can find it 1.5-3ft down.  A surface freeze in combination with slowing of moving water in the snowpack may have aided us with making it more difficult to trigger an avalanche on this layer. 

    Your observations will help us learn more about the presence of this layer. If you get out on upper elevation northerly areas and see any avalanches which may have failed on it, or dig down to the weak layer, share with us what you found by filling out an OBSERVATION. If you’re in the terrain where one of these large, unsurvivable avalanches could occur, you’re taking on a slightly higher risk that you could trigger one of these avalanches.

    (3/23/2022)

    Profile from Big Chief Mtn. The March 8th facets, about 45cm below the surface, were barely perceptible, very rounded, and moist. 5600ft, NW.

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    A wet loose avalanche cycle occurred Monday afternoon into Tuesday when dry snow was initially wetted. A freeze Wednesday night helped to stabilize the snow. Surfaces became firm and the snow was not as reactive as it was a few days ago. Cloud cover Thursday night and Friday means that we probably won’t have as solid a freeze as we did Wednesday night, but the snow is not expected to get nearly as soft as it was earlier in the week. 

    You might find soft, unsupportable snow in steep, rocky areas on Friday. If you’re sinking in as deep as your ankles or more, there's a small chance you could trigger an avalanche, so consider shifting off steep slopes. With cloud cover, expect all aspects to soften equally, but if the cover is thinner, softening may remain limited to southerly aspects. 

    (3/23/2022) Numerous wet loose avalanches occurred in the west fork above Lake Susan Jane on March 21st. NE-N, 4800-5,600ft. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

Snow surfaces could be hard and bumpy or soft and sticky, depending on the time of day and cloud cover. There’s a small chance that spring corn conditions may present on Friday. Snow cover below 3000ft is getting very sparse. Prepare for a whole variety of conditions on your outing.

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