Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow and moderate to strong winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions as the likelihood of triggering a large and destructive avalanche increases throughout the day.  North through east-facing terrain near and above treeline is where you're most likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche as dense slabs rest on top of weak faceted layers that are 1 to 3 feet down from January and February. These weak layers will struggle to adjust to this new snow load and may become reactive. Continued snowfall and wind throughout the day will build storm slabs at all elevations, with thicker more sensitive slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain at upper elevations. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees, giving avalanche path runouts wide berths paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Continued snowfall and moderate to strong sw winds will see storm slabs continue to build throughout the day. Storm totals so far are  5 to 8 inches with an additional 6 to 10 inches forecasted by the evening. These slabs will be forming on a variety of different surfaces from melt-freeze crusts to old firm wind slabs and near-surface facets and may not be bonding well to the old snow surface. At upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features, these slabs could be deeper and more sensitive. Watch for wind drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow surface, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like cracking on the surface.  On north through east aspects, a smaller storm slab has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and wind will continue to build slabs stressing deeper faceted weak layers. Northwest through east aspects near and above treeline is where you're most likely to find this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak. Faceted weak layers are 1 to 3 down in the snowpack and formed during the January and February high-pressure periods around crusts and underneath dense slabs. Avoid slopes over 30 degrees paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  There is a possibility that you can trigger an avalanche from a distance away or well below the start zone.  Avoid likely trigger points near rock outcroppings, steep convex rolls, and on the margins of the slab.  These avalanches could be large and dangerous and be big enough to injure or bury you.

     

    Near and above treeline on northerly and east aspects is where you're most likely to encounter stiff slabs on top of weak faceted snow beneath.  With more snow in the forecast over the next week, we may see these buried weak layers become more reactive.

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals over the last 36 hours are 5 to 8 inches of snow with 0.5 -0.7" of SWE.  Southwest winds this morning are in the teens to 30 mph range with gusts in the 60's at upper ridgelines.  An upper level closed low in northern AZ will move east along the NM/CO border today bringing an additional 6 to 10 inches of snow throughout the day and could push the water totals close to 1.5" for the storm so far.  Moderate to strong sw winds will continue to drift snow at upper elevations creating thicker more dangerous slabs and should push the avalanche danger to Considerable at upper elevations.  It'll be an active weather week with a parade of storms impacting our area through Friday.  Today's system looks to be the biggest of the bunch with intense periods of heavy snowfall expected, which may lead to some natural avalanches in steep terrain at upper elevations.   

The persistent slab problem continues to linger mainly on northerly and east aspects near and above treeline and may become more reactive to the weight of a skier and rider as newly formed slabs stress the weak layers that formed during the January and February high-pressure periods. There is still some uncertainty as to how much weight is needed to see these layers become more reactive, but with periods of intense snowfall expected throughout the day, we could see these layers more sensitive and touchy.  Near treeline terrain is where we've been finding more consistent widespread weak layers around crusts, that continue to remain well preserved. Above treeline terrain, these facet layers are buried beneath older wind slabs and are less continuous across slopes, however, these are also the slopes seeing the greatest amount of loading.  Below treeline the week of warm weather prior to this storm created thick crusts on the surface that should support the weight of the new snow and be harder to impact the weak layer. 

It's nice to see winter is not through with us yet, but with that will come an increase in avalanche danger. Lower angle wind-sheltered terrain will provide safer skiing and riding options today.  

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