Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Mar 23 – 24, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Strong solar radiation is expected throughout the weekend. When solar radiation is strongest, the avalanche danger may exceed posted levels.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline may take a few days to settle and bond. Cornices are very large and also threaten slopes below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Solar warming is likely to cause loose wet avalanches, especially on steep, rocky, south-facing terrain.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–8
    A weak interface down 1-2m remains concerning. While avalanches on this layer have become less frequent, those that do release are very large and destructive. Solar warming this weekend may spark renewed activity.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Clear skies with strong solar input - light southwest ridge top winds - freezing level at 1500m Sunday: Clear skies with strong solar input - light to moderate southwest ridge top winds - freezing level at 1700m Monday: Possible increased cloud - light and variable winds - freezing level at 1700m

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday a size 3 natural storm slab released on a southeasterly alpine slope. A melt freeze crust that formed earlier in the week was the suspected bed surface. A size 2 on a similar feature was also reported.The most recent report of avalanche activity on the early-February layer was Monday where natural avalanches up to size 3.5 failed on southerly aspects down about 100-150cm. Avalanches releasing on this layer are becoming less frequent; however, solar warming is of particular concern over the next few days, as it could destabilize storm slabs and cornices, potentially initiating deep failures on the mid-February layer. Be particularly wary of sunny aspects during the heat of the day.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm recent storm snow overlies various surfaces including settled snow, wind slabs and crusts. New wind slabs have formed in the alpine and at treeline. Solar warming last weekend left a melt-freeze crust up to about 2400 m on solar aspects and up to about 1500 m on all aspects. Cornices have grown large and unstable. A consolidated deep slab overlies weak surfaces that formed in early February. Now 1-2 m below the surface, these weaknesses include surface hoar, facets or crusts. Operators continue to express concern about the potential for deep releases on these interfaces.

Regions covered