Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect the spiciest conditions in the morning as the storm draws to a close. You could encounter both natural and human triggered slabs and loose avalanches depending on aspect and elevation. Be patient. Give the new snow time to heal by avoiding steep open slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm totals since 12/21 could easily reach 12-24 inches at 6000 ft by Monday morning. Fluctuating temperatures and shifting winds likely created several weaklayers within the new snow. To make matters worse, in some locations, these new slabs might bond poorly to a firm underlying crust, making them easier to trigger. Assume steep open slopes could slide until you can prove otherwise. 

    Frequent hand pits, uptrack tests, and small slopes can give you a picture of how the snow may respond as you change aspect and elevation. If it fails easily or in blocks, avoid similar steep open slopes. 

    Shifting winds may drift deeper slabs in some strange areas and could result in large slides. Even if you’re not seeing unstable storm snow in other tests, give wind-loaded areas a wide berth.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    You could bump into two different versions of the same wet loose problem on Monday. Near the rain-snow line, wet heavy snow sits over the crust. You may trigger loose avalanches in steep terrain rather than a slab. While small and easier to manage than the slabs, these slides could still take you for a rough ride through the trees. 

    Sunshine in the morning may result in natural loose slides as snow sheds off trees and rocks. These will be most likely on E-SE-S aspect. Cloud cover should put an end to this problem quickly by the afternoon. Don’t linger under steep sunny slope once you start seeing snowballs rolling down the hill.

    (12/2/2024)

    Example: You could see natural wet loose slides as snow sheds from trees and rocks on sunnier aspects. 

Avalanche Discussion

With the storm ending in the wee hours of the morning and the day starting with sunshine, it might feel quite. However, avalanches should be most likely right out of the gate. The danger should slowly drop as the snow has time to settle and bond to the underlying crust. 

Below the recent snow, the Solstice Crust is basically our “new ground.” This very prominent and firm layer should prevent any issues with layers deeper in the snowpack. There is some question about how high in the terrain this layer reaches. If you travel above 7000 ft, it may become thinner and less robust. 

For most of the lower elevations, there isn’t enough new snow to present much of a hazard. It’s only really in the upper reaches of that band where you could run into a wet loose slide. Instead early season conditions persist. Expect open creeks, downed debris, frozen tree bombs, and thin coverage.

Regions covered