Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

On Wednesday, you may find some isolated, small, wet avalanches, but we expect the hazard to be minimal. Sunny cliffs and rocks shedding snow are the most likely terrain features to watch out for if you travel on slopes below. The shallow early-season snowpack harbors other hazards to avoid, such as exposed rocks, creeks, and challenging travel.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    While avalanches are unlikely, steep rocks and cliffs in the sun could still shed snow onto the slopes below. The sun doesn't pack enough punch this time of the year to quickly break down surface crusts on south aspects. So, we expect wet loose avalanches to be pretty isolated in the terrain. However, we have limited information and some uncertainty with the distribution of this problem. So, it's also worth paying attention to the snow on sunny slopes. If it's wet, heavy, and beginning to rollerball, wet snow avalanches are becoming more likely.We are stuck with this stubborn inversion for another day, so expect the same complicated temperature profile throughout the zone. You will find cold, cloudy conditions at lower elevations, with warmer temperatures at higher elevations further west in the zone. Northern slopes still hold cold, dry snow and little chance of wet avalanches. 

    (3/23/2022)

    Wet loose avalanches often initiate from steep rocks and cliffs shedding snow. 

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

The inversion cloud deck bounced around right at the base area of Mission Ridge, which was evident from the hourly temperature averages jumping from near freezing to mid-teens and back repeatedly. Upper elevations still experienced mild temperatures in the mid 40°Fs. We are simply stuck in this repetitive cycle of weather conditions. Temperatures may cool slightly on Thursday. But don't expect significant changes until at least Friday, when we may see more active weather. 

Observers report minimal wet loose avalanche activity, just some rollerballs on south and east aspects at upper elevations. They also noted melt-freeze crusts on southern slopes. North-facing aspects still hold cold, dry snow that is beginning to weaken and become faceted. Large surface hoar is also widespread where cold temperatures and clear skies overlap. The snowpack height is decreasing slowly at upper elevations, but thankfully, the inversion is preserving the little snow we have at lower elevations. You will likely experience challenging travel at lower elevations with low snow cover and breakable crusts of varying hardnesses on southern slopes at mid and upper elevations. 

We don't have many observations from the upper elevations, but last week, there were a couple of human-triggered wind slabs in alpine terrain. These avalanches have all been small, but it's worth considering if you're using the nice weather to get into complex terrain in the upper elevations. Depending on the type of terrain you're traveling in, even a small avalanche can ruin your season. Look for signs of wind-textured surfaces and use small test slopes to see if they produce cracking or mini avalanches before committing to more consequential terrain features. 

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