Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There are numerous possibilities for avalanches today, both large and small. The areas of greatest avalanche danger exist in locations that received 8 or more inches of new snowfall over the past 24 hours. In some areas, this new snow was deposited on top of a weak old snow surface that could lead to complicated and dangerous avalanche problems. HIGH avalanche danger is expected for Saturday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2

    Strong S winds over the past 36 hours have drifted and deposited new snow into locally deeper areas. Overnight, these areas of drifted snow have likely become more cohesive slabs. In some areas, especially across NW-N-NE aspects, these wind slabs deposited on top of a weak and sugary (faceted) old snow surface. Increasing slab cohesion + old snow weak layer = increased likelihood of triggering an avalanche.

    These winds slabs exist along the down wind side of ridgetops and in gully features, mainly in above treeline and near treeline terrain. Wind slabs may also exist in more isolated areas below treeline. 

    Use clues such as recent avalanches, drifting snow, cornice formation, new wind drifts, and snow surface cracking to identify areas of potentially unstable wind slab. Move around these areas with caution.

    (12/3/2024)

    This wind slab avalanche likely failed on 11/23/24. Similar looking terrain will be prone to wind slabs avalanches for the next several days.

    Photo: Sierra Avalanche Center

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Avalanches may also be triggered today in wind protected areas. This is most likely in locations where new snow has deposit on top of old, weak sugary snow. This old snow surface weak layer (sugary facets) is weakest on shaded, wind protected N aspects. It has been observed to some extent across many NW-N-NE aspects at a variety of elevations throughout the forecast area. In some areas, the most well-developed weak layer exists in mid-slope avalanche terrain or near the bottom of drainages.

    Pay attention to the amount of new snow that has accumulated in wind protected areas. A quick dig with your hand will reveal the old snow surface. Finding weaker, more clear looking, sugary snow underneath the new snow tells you that you are in an area where this weak layer exists. Snow surface cracking or recent avalanches are clues to the presence of this avalanche problem. Consider avoiding travel in avalanche terrain or below steep slopes in any area where signs of this avalanche problem exist.

    A couple of additional notes: 1) Significant amounts of graupel were noted yesterday in some locations, adding a weak layer within the storm snow. This may allow for shallow instability within the new snow to persist today on any aspect. 2) Rising snow levels today will put some rain on new snow. This could create some wet snow avalanches below about 7,000'. Wet loose or wet slab avalanches are possible today on a variety of aspects.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's avalanche danger will vary from one location to another around the forecast area. The specific conditions at the old/new snow interface is a major factor in potential instability. The greatest danger will exist in locations where new snow has deposited on top of a weak old snow surface. In locations where the old snow surface is stronger, avalanche danger will be less. One portion of the forecast area could easily see minimal instability today, while widespread instability is observed in another portion of the forecast area. As this storm cycle progresses, rapid loading of the snowpack on Saturday may allow for reactivation of deeper weak layers that have recently been dormant in the snowpack. This could lead to larger, more destructive avalanches as this storm cycle continues.

Regions covered