Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A storm will increase the avalanche danger over the weekend, and avalanches will be likely.  Avalanches could occur on any steep slopes where enough snow lands, however, they will be more reactive and larger in wind-loaded areas. Avoid steep slopes in your travels on Saturday. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Human triggered avalanches are likely on Saturday, and being caught in one could be large enough to bury and kill you. Snow will rapidly load throughout the night and into the daylight hours, possibly totaling a foot or more. Winds are forecasted to be stronger overnight, and they will drop a little during the day. 

    Any location where you find a layer of recently-fallen snow deeper than 6 inches is suspect, as it probably hasn't had time to adjust. However, wind-loaded slopes are more likely to avalanche, and they will probably produce larger avalanches. Layering may be complex with this storm, as heavier slabs could develop with the wind overnight, and a smoother lower density coating of snow could bury it later on, making the thicker slab less obvious. To set yourself up for success, steer around slopes great than 35 degrees on Saturday.

    An example of a slab avalanche which occurred last year. There was likely wind-effect on the slab as well. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

An avalanche could fail deeper than the new snow layer on Saturday. Limited information is known about a suspect, weak, layer which could be buried 3 feet or more beneath the old snow surface.  In neighboring zones these layers have been found, yet not many avalanches have occurred on them yet. A large load of snow and/or a human trigger could awaken it. We've had several smaller storms and wind events in the last several days as well, so there's a chance an avalanche could break at one of these interfaces, becoming larger than what you might otherwise expect.

This storm is an unusual southerly weather event, so snowfall totals could vary greatly depending on where you are in the zone.  No matter where you are, you can expect to see bullseye clues, or red flags, on Saturday.  There's near certainty that recent new snow and wind are present. If you see an avalanche, that's a bonus point, in addition to being the most obvious indicator to avoid nearby slopes. Another red flag you might come across is collapsing or cracking in the snowpack.  These indicators are all suggestions to wait until enough time has passed -at least a day- for the new snow to settle out before making your way onto steeper slopes. So far this winter we've seen a lot of mellower days, but that's not today. Stay on alert if you're heading into the backcountry. Pay attention to the terrain you're traveling through. This isn't the time to try and thread the needle. Simpler terrain is the easiest way to make it through the day on Saturday. 

 

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