Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered wind slab avalanches 1-2 feet deep are possible in exposed and loaded middle and upper-elevation terrain. Triggering a deeper persistant slab is getting harder but still possible, especially in shallow and rocky areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    South Winds have been strong to moderate over the last few days. Wednesday there was a report of a skier just North of Tamarack that was able to trigger a wind slab avalanche. Wednesday, we also observed active wind loading, cracking in the snow surface, and whumphing noises in the snowpack while walking and snowmobiling the ridge just North of Tamarack resort. 

    Be cautious near ridgelines and cornices. Especially in wind-loaded terrain...If you are seeing red flags, find another safer route or slope to play on.

    (12/28/2022)

    Cracking in the snow surface shooting out from the snowmobile where the wind was stiffining the surface or actively building a slab.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    We are still getting test results that are showing potential to propagate or send a fracture over a far distance on a buried surface hoar layer that formed around December 18th and now has around 2 feet above it. This persistent weak layer was responsible for many human-triggered and natural avalanches just before Christmas.

    Triggering this layer would be more likely in shallow and or rocky areas.  While the likelihood is low the consequences would be high, and this layer will persist for some time.

     

    (12/28/2022)

    Buried Surface Hoar that formed 10 days ago on West Mountain just North of Tamarack Ski Resort at around 7200 feet.

Avalanche Discussion

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Old and new wind slabs are going to be your primary concern over the next couple of days. Triggering deeper weak layers is going to be difficult, but if you did get the upper snowpack to go, you could get a really big avalanche/ overload the buried surface hoar that formed 12/18 that is still producing ECTP27 in our snowpit on Wednesday 12/28...The snowpack has gotten saturated from heavy rains below 7200' and was still not frozen as of Wednesday.  The lower snowpack in the lower elevations will likely solidify after a few cold days and nights and eliminate any wet loose potential like some of the natural evidence seen from our rain event early in the week that formed a stout rain crust that is now buried in the upper foot of the snowpack.

Check out some of the recent avalanche observations on our observations page.