Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger small, shallow avalanches in wind-drifted snow at upper elevations on steep slopes below ridgelines or the base of cliffs. A more unlikely possibility exists of larger, more dangerous avalanches failing on deeper weak layers on northern aspects. Steer around steep slopes where you find wind-textured surfaces or deep drifts, particularly on shady slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    With continued easterly winds you could find and trigger shallow wind slabs in the usual locations like steep slopes below ridgelines, the base of cliffs, and confined alpine features. On Monday, an NWAC forecaster near Mission Ridge found shallow fresh wind slabs on lee aspects. Identify wind-loaded slopes using visual clues such as cornice formations or textured surfaces and feel for stiff over weak snow. You can also use small, inconsequential test slopes to observe how the snow reacts. Cracking or mini avalanches are a sign you should avoid steep wind-loaded slopes. While these slides should be relatively small, they could step down to deeper weak layers, triggering a large persistent slab. 

    Human triggered small, isolated wind slabs in the Blewett Pass area on Saturday. 

    Photo: Payton Schiff

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

    The East Central zone hasn't had much activity or signs of instability on weak snow layers associated with the January Drought Layer in several days. An NWAC forecaster in the Mission Ridge area found the poor snowpack structure, but stability tests were largely unremarkable.  You're unlikely to trigger a persistent slab,  but these problems always come with a lot of uncertainty, especially with our widely variable snowpack. The distribution is nearly impossible to pin down, but the most likely places are on shady slopes where the winds drifted the snow deeper or closer to the Cascade Crest, where more recent snow accumulated. 

    Choosing simpler, well-supported, or lower-angle terrain is a good way to reduce your likelihood of triggering one of these slides further. Feel for stiff over weak snow and back off steep slopes if you experience the snowpack collapse audibly. 

    (2/3/2025)

    Example: A skier triggered persistent slab avalanche near White Pass. This slide released over a 100ft wide and 2-3ft deep.

    WNW, 5600ft SS-ASu-D2-R2-O

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

In a repeat of Tuesday, prepare for easterly winds and extremely cold wind-chill values in the negatives. Make sure to pack extra layers and some hand warmers. It is also worth considering the consequences of a minor injury or equipment malfunction stranding you overnight in the mountains. A simple issue could quickly turn life-threatening. Thankfully, the sunshine will help moderate the frigid temperatures just slightly. It likely won't be warm enough to warrant wet loose avalanche concerns, but you could see some isolated dry loose avalanches off steep rocks warming in the sun. 

On Monday, an NWAC forecaster in the Mission Ridge area found a few inches of fresh snow with a poor bond to the old snow surface of still wind-affected snow. Below these old 10-12 inch wind slabs is a weak layer of sugary facets from the January Drought. While the stability tests were unremarkable, this weak structure could come back to haunt us with additional snow. This problem may also be more likely closer to the Cascade Crest which accumulated significantly more snow during the early February Storm. She also identified a layer of buried surface hoar 2ft deep that produced sudden test results. We expect the distribution of this more deeply buried surface hoar to be isolated, but it's still notable and another variable to track in our complex snowpack. 

Avalanche professionals in the Holden area found a surface melt-freeze crust over 4-6 inches of recent snow well bonded to the old snow surface on southerly aspects. On northern slopes, they observed the January Drought Layer down 1-2ft, with unremarkable stability test results and a lack of a cohesive overlaying slab.

The snowpack may be very weak at the lowest elevations and in the eastern parts of the zone, but there hasn’t been much new snow. As a result, you’ll likely find general safe avalanche conditions and more exposed obstacles. 

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