Today, the avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE in mid and upper elevation terrain. It will be possible for humans to trigger an avalanche 1'-3' deep, failing on buried facets near the ground. This is more likely in shallow thin rocky zones or in repeater avalanche paths. Expect to see, and look to avoid loose dry new snow and wind-drifted snow avalanches.
Heavy dense new snow is falling onto a weak layer of faceted old snow. Expect to see loose new snow avalanches at all aspects and elevations and shallow soft slab avalanches in higher elevation terrain. Any slope over 30° is suspect. Stay off of and out from underneath slopes greater than 30° particularly during periods of increased snowfall rates.
Strong winds have drifted the new snow into wind drifts that now sit on top of an old weak sugary faceted snow surface. These drifts will not bond well to the old snow surface. Look for and avoid pillowy, rounded new wind drifts. Shooting cracks, cornices, and collapsing are all signs of wind-drifted snow and these are areas to avoid. With increasing wind speeds throughout the day drifts may appear lower on the slope and further down ridgelines.
There are currently two buried weak layers in our snowpack. One is a layer of buried near-surface facets that formed during last week's cold clear weather. This layer will not bond well to the newest snow and expect to see sloughing and loose dry avalanches on this layer. The second layer is buried near the ground. This layer was formed in December and was responsible for large avalanches, including two fatalities (HERE and HERE) around the Holiday Avalanche Cycle. This layer will be more likely to be triggered as the storm continues and we could see avalanches 1'-3' deep. The most likely places to trigger an avalanche on this layer of buried facets are steep slopes that have a thinner snowpack, rocky gully features, and areas that previously avalanched (repeaters).
Read more about persistent weak layer avalanches HERE.
There were no reports of avalanche activity from the backcountry yesterday. Read all observations HERE.
Currently, under overcast skies trailhead temperatures are in the mid 20's °F and the highest peaks are in the low 20's °F. Wind speeds at the lower ridgelines are blowing from the southwest in the 20's gusting to the 40's and at the highest ridgelines in the 20's gusting to the 50's with max gusts up to 70MPH. Mountain weather stations report 1"-4" snow with .10"-.20" water overnight. Today, a fire hose of a storm lines up on Northern Utah. This may go north of the Central Wasatch, but we can expect to see temperatures 28-34 °F and rising this afternoon. Trailhead winds will blow from the southwest 15 gusting to 20 and at the highest peaks 30 gusting to 40 with gusts to the high 50's MPH and rising wind speeds this afternoon. 7"-12" of snow is forecast with .80"-1.30" water. Our partners at the National Weather Service have issued a Winter Storm Warning, effective until Sunday at 5PM.
Nikki's Week in Review is available. Be sure to include this valuable resource as part of your regular planning for backcountry travel.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
