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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2016–Feb 5th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Extra Caution required in alpine and open treeline features.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Moderate southerly winds Thursday night will redistribute storm snow.  10-15cm of snow with moderate to strong southwesterly winds on Friday.  Another 5-10cm on Saturday with light to moderate westerly winds.  No snow forecasted for Sunday and winds die down.  Freezing levels rise to 1300m on Friday, followed by a cooling trend.

Avalanche Summary

Several size one skier triggered avalanches were reported on Wednesday.  We expect the size and sensitivity of the storm slabs to increase on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow brings the storm slab to 35-45 cm and can be found across most of the region. This new snow lies above a variable old surface buried at the end of January. This interface is being reported as a layer of surface hoar at treeline in the Rossland area. However, in most other parts of the region the new snow sits on a rain crust and/or old wind slabs. A weak layer buried mid-January can be found down 45-50cm, however, snow pit tests indicate that this layer is gaining strength. Deeper in the snowpack, the persistent weak layer that was buried earlier in January is now down 80-120 cm and continues to give sudden planar fractures in snowpack tests under moderate to heavy loads.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.