Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

On Tuesday, ongoing snow and strong wind will maintain dangerous conditions. You can trigger large slab avalanches at middle and upper elevations and some may occur naturally. We could see continued avalanche activity involving deeply buried weak layers on northerly aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Use extra caution on slopes over 35 degrees at middle and upper elevations and where you see actively blowing snow. Watch for recent avalanches and cracking as signs of danger anywhere that you find more than 6" of recent storm snow. when in doubt defer to lower-angle terrain. 

    You may be able to trigger avalanches in sheltered terrain, but the most dangerous areas will be where you find fresh wind-drifted slabs on the leeward sides of ridges at middle and upper elevations. 

    (2/6/2025)

    This large (D2) slab avalanche was likely triggered by cornice fall. Estimated crown depth is 1.5-2ft. Liberty Bowl, NNW, 7,200ft

    Photo: NCMG

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Put a large buffer between where you travel and all slopes over 35 degrees that are suspect for persistent slab avalanches.  Expect that avalanches could run into runouts and valley bottoms. Heed the warning of any whumpfs or cracks that break into deeper weak layers. Avalanches have already run naturally on the January Drought layer, 2-3 feet below the surface.

    Observers reported a widespread cycle of avalanches on the night of the 22nd into the 23rd near Harts Pass. Some were very large, had deep crowns, and are assumed to have run on the JDL. The ongoing snow and wind may be enough to keep this cycle going. 

    (2/23/2025)

    A very large (D3) natural avalanche near Harts Pass likely ran on old, weak layers.

    Photo: NCH

Avalanche Discussion

The coming wind event, in addition to snow and cooling temperatures, are maintaining dangerous conditions. Above 5,500ft, precipitation has been almost entirely snow. Below that, you will find most snow and layers that may have transformed to melt forms. While we know it's been snowing (and raining) and the wind will be blowing, we haven't received much direct information on avalanche conditions since last week. Our confidence in the forecast is lower than normal, but we know that a cycle of natural avalanches occurred. 

Overall, the snowpack in the zone is weak, faceted, and variable. Facets from the January Drought Layer (JDL) are the main concern, about 1.5-2.5 feet below the surface. They were responsible for the large collapses and sudden test results last week near the Silver Star drainage with only warming temperatures. As the snowfall on the 22nd to the 23rd, observers reported whumpfing and audible avalanches near Cutthroat Creek and confirmed natural very large avalanches in the Harts Pass.

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