Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You're most likely to trigger a large avalanche where the wind formed drifts or stiffened the snow surface. Triggering avalanches is also possible on sheltered slopes. In recent days, multiple groups triggered avalanches remotely—from flat terrain below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes—to the southeast of this zone.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    What and where is it: You are most likely to trigger a 2-4 foot thick avalanche on wind-exposed slopes facing the northern 2/3 of the compass. Triggering an avalanche is less likely—but still possible—on steep slopes that appear to be completely sheltered from the wind. The slabs rest above a variety of ugly, widespread weak layers (facets, surface hoar, crusts, and combinations).

    How can you recognize it: Watch for cornices, snow pillows, dunes, and ripples (photo). Feel for stiff snow under your feet or sled. These are signs the wind has been at work transporting snow.

    How can you manage it: Before triggering an avalanche, you may or may not experience obvious signs of instability like snowpack cracking and collapsing or whumpfing. Avoid obviously wind-loaded slopes. Persistent Slabs can release in surprising ways, break wider than expected, and release above or hundreds of feet away from where they are triggered. We can't assume tracks on a slope mean it is safe; several people could descend a slope before triggering an avalanche.

    Additional Discussion: You may be able to trigger thinner avalanches involving only the wind drifted snow from the tail end of the storm. Watch for them near ridgelines and in cross-loaded areas on the sides of gullies. The biggest hazards these soft and hard slabs pose are 1) carrying you where you don't want to go and 2) triggering the much larger Persistent Slabs discussed above as the slides move downslope. Avoid large, consequential avalanche paths where the wind formed stiff drifts or slabs.

Avalanche Discussion

Countless avalanches released naturally in the southern part of this zone (the western Smoky Mtns and southern Sawtooths) during the big February storms. Fewer avalanches released in the northern Sawtooths near Stanley. Avalanche conditions appear to be diverging in this zone. 

In and near the southern part of the zone: Sunday, skiers remotely-triggered avalanches near Galena Summit (first hand report, SAC site visit) and in Lake Creek while skiing low-angle terrain next to steeper slopes. We also received a report of a recent large avalanche in the Mt. Baldy backcountry that appeared to be remotely-triggered by skiers. We continue to receive reports of booming collapses from around the forecast area.  This clear evidence shows the snowpack needs more time to adjust to the big load from the recent storms. 

In the northern Sawtooths: In recent days, professional and public observers reported fewer obvious signs of instability. However, a ski guide reported a snowpack collapse that "was definitely [one of the] top 3 loudest collapses I have ever heard." Similar to conditions in the Banner Summit zone, you probably would not see obvious signs of instability (cracking, collapsing, recent avalanches) before triggering a large avalanche.

Think about the consequences of a meaty slab avalanche breaking hundreds of feet wide before committing to playing on or below any steep slopes with trees, creeks, lakes, or gullies where the debris would pile up.  

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